ProfessorMJ
ProfMJ finished in the top half of the standings
last year and should be able to replicate this year in part due
to an excellent defensive saved team which includes one of the
best DLs (Garrett), one of the best DBs (K Hamilton), and two
viable starting LBs (E Jones and CJ Mosley).
Strength: Rookie duo.
It is unclear if M Harrison was really worth a franchise
player but considering Prof also drafted Nabers, this rookie duo
is strong. Teams
who drafted a rookie QB waited quite a bit and all have a subpar
second rookie, unlike Prof.
Weakness: Starting RBs.
Prof waited until the last pick of the 3rd
round to draft a RB (J Cook) and did not draft another one until
the 11th round.
That means Prof’s
RB2 will have to be either Swift who is on an offense with many
other weapons or B Robinson who would not be a starter on any
other PQBFL team.
Best Pick: Shedeur Sanders. He might become the
most valuable rookie in 2025 so he was a bargain towards the end
of the 8th round.
Worst Pick: T Kelce. Taylor Swift declared
that jetlag is a “choice”. Kelce is about to show
that no, it is definitely not a choice. Someone of that age
cannot stay at the pinnacle of fitness required to perform at a
high level in the NFL while jetting between North America and
Europe all summer long. Calling
it now: Kelce will not be an above average starting TE in the
PQBFL. That means
TE5 or below.
Ballers
The Ballers finished last in 2023
and unfortunately had to carry some dead wood into 2024 via a
subpar saved team. The
Ballers targeted youth during the draft more so than in
previous years so it might start to pay dividends in 2025 but
2024 might be a rebuilding year.
Strength: QBs. It
is unclear if L Jackson will continue to put up good rushing
stats now that D Henry is with the Ravens, but Goff and A
Rodgers are a very solid backup duo which could start during the
season if L-Jax does not perform.
Weakness: Backup TEs.
Nowhere is the 2023 dead wood more visible than the TE
position. Ertz and
Hurst might not have been drafted if they had not been saved.
Best Pick: K Walker. The Ballers needed to
think about franchise player for 2025 so a young RB on an
improving offense which has now upgraded its offensive line was
a good fit.
Worst Pick: Zack Moss. This is the mirror
image of the Walker pick. Moss
won’t
be a starting RB in the NFL for much longer so a 5th
round pick was a hefty price to pay which will not yield
dividends next year.
Decepticons
The Decepticons drafted youth throughout the 2023
draft to reset the team.
The ‘Cons finished in the bottom 3 last year but the
draft strategy should start paying off as early as this year
as Dec projects to be in the top 3 now.
Strength: Starting RBs.
This goes without saying.
Dec’s
franchise players are Taylor and B Hall and nobody else comes
even close to matching this pair.
Weakness: Backup QBs.
Tua Tago or J Love might emerge to be a decent starting
QB but the fact that Dec only drafted 2 QBs leaves the team bare
bones should there be an injury.
Every team in the PQBFL drafted 3 QBs except Dec. Last year FE went with
this strategy but they happened to have Josh Allen who finished
QB1 overall so it worked out.
It might not go as well for Dec this year.
Best Pick: Drake London. He was a low hanging
fruit available in the middle of the third round and Dec grabbed
him. London becomes
instant starter for Dec and potential for franchise player as
well if the Falcons improve their offense.
Worst Pick: Zaire Franklin. Oluokun was the
consensus LB1 in the league and taken 21st overall by
Wax. Franklin was
arguably not even LB2 and yet went 25th overall which
was too expensive considering that Roquan Smith was taken more
than a full round later.
OldNo7
OldNo7 won 2023 primarily with offense and will
try to defend their title with an excellent offensive saved
team including CMC and Amon-Ra as franchise players. Last year, defense
was not stellar but it did not prevent Old from winning but in
2024 Old’s defensive saved team is below average and the draft
did not help so it’s a drag on the overall pre-season
projections.
Strength: RBs. CMC
was the PQBFL MVP in 2023 and is arguably still #1 overall on
many people’s
lists before the start of 2024.
Kyren Williams was excellent last year, perhaps it’s
less of a slam dunk this year but Kamara and N Harris can easily
pick up the slack if needed.
Weakness: Individual Defenders. The top 4 starters
Hubbard + Singleton + Q Williams + Ju Reid have the lowest
combined projection of the entire PQBFL. There are no stars
here. Not only was
Old’s saved team below
average, but Old waited until the last pick of the 15th
round to draft their first IDP.
That might come back to haunt them.
Best Pick: Brock Bowers. Rookie Jonathan Brooks
will probably not be 100% early during the season so Bowers can
start at rookie, and once Brooks come back, Bowers is an ideal
candidate to graduate from rookie to TE similar to what Dec did
last year with LaPorta. That
makes Bowers a very good complement to someone expected to start
slow like Brooks.
Worst Pick: C Watson. He might have been the
best available WR at that point in the draft, but was it really
necessary to burn an 8th round pick on a WR when Old
already had 5 WRs? Only
4 WRs were drafted in the 9th to 20th
rounds so possibly Watson could have been available later if Old
really wanted WR depth because other teams seemed to have
concluded that they did not need another WR, unlike Old.
WaxOnWaxOff
After an injury depleted 2023, Wax should fare
better in 2024 particularly the trade of Stroud in return for
A Richardson + DK Metcalf + McBride done in mid October 2023
gave Wax two cut players plus one quality saved player. It helped replenish
Wax’s saved team which otherwise might have still felt the
effects of last year’s injuries.
Strength: Defense.
This squad is rock solid from top to bottom with N Bosa,
N Bolton, Oluokun, B Baker, and the 49ers team defense. There are simply no
flaws.
Weakness: TEs. TJ
Hockenson was saved but he will start 2024 on the PUP list. In the mean time Wax
will need to start Musgrave or Kmet who are both pedestrian at
best.
Best Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. Wax has Maye on the
bench waiting to take over the starting job in New England so
another starting rookie was needed. Thomas came at a
discount, being the 11th rookie taken in the draft
and it’s not difficult to
envision him easily finishing above ROO11 considering his
competition in JAX is Kirk and Gabe Davis, plus he has a capable
QB throwing the rock. Thomas
has impressed in preseason so the writing is on the wall.
Worst Pick: DK Metcalf. After Metcalf was cut,
perhaps Wax wanted him back badly?
But Wax took him at 30th overall with plenty
of other decent WRs remaining on the board. Wax must not believe
that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is much of a threat to Metcalf, but the
risk is there.
Admirals
The Admirals finished first in
injury points in 2024 by a long shot and benefited from the
first pick of most rounds during the draft which helps. Nonetheless
preseason projections still expect Adm to be below average due
to an exceedingly weak saved offensive team. In fact, after
saving guys like Mingo and Knox who would not have been
drafted, on top of not one but two saved kickers, Adm ran out
of offensive players to save so they went with 7 offense 7
defense instead of 9 offense 5 defense, being the only PQBFL
team to do so.
Strength: Backup RBs.
Unfortunately Nick Chubb is still injured so Adm will
probably not start fast, but thankfully the backups are better
than most other PQBFL teams with Gus Edwards, and two Whites
(Rashaad and Zamir).
Weakness: WRs. AJ Brown is not the problem, but who
will start besides him? Nico
Collins has plenty of competition for targets in Houston now
that Diggs has joined and Tank Dell showed lots of potential
last year.
Best Pick: Kyler Murray. Adm saved D Watson but
he seems hopeless so a starting QB was necessary. Murray now has a new
toy WR to play with (Harrison) and it was not long ago that
Murray was considered franchise player material. Nobody would fall off
their chair if Murray ends up being a top 3 QB. A great pick in the 6th
round - he did not cost an arm and a leg.
Worst Pick: Sam LaPorta. He’s possibly TE1 on
everybody’s
list, but drafting him second overall was quite a reach. That’s like picking T Kelce in
his prime and LaPorta only has one season under his belt.
GloriousBastards
The GloriousBastards made a strong push for
second place in the second half of 2023 but crashed in weeks
17-18. Nonetheless
with both Caleb and Jayden Daniels on the roster and being
cut, plus a trade before the deadline in late November 2023
where Bas acquired both Conner and M Evans (which are now
saved), Bas ends up with a strong saved team and projections
have them near the top in 2024.
Strength: Team Defense.
There are many strengths to choose from for Bas, but team
defense seems particularly dominant. Both the Cowboys and
Steelers finished in the top 9 in 2023 and it will probably
happen again in 2024. Bas
will be able to play the matchups on a weekly basis quite
nicely.
Weakness: DLs. This
is a glaring hole. Cam
Heyward will soon be a grandpa.
Jeffrey Simmons is probably an average backup (DL10-18),
not a starter. Kobie
Turner could surprise because he had a nice rookie season in
2023 but remains quite unproven.
This group does not scare anybody.
Best Pick: T McBride. Most draft list have
McBride ahead of M Andrews, and even more so in the PQBFL
considering the 2025 saved value with McBride being younger. Andrews was taken in
the 4th round and it felt like an eternity until the
next TE was drafted with McBride falling in the 6th
round to Bas exactly 20 picks later. Great value.
Worst Pick: Bo Nix. Caleb went 7th
overall and J Daniels 8th overall so Nix at #12 felt
like a mild case of panic.
The problem is that Bas was not picking again until 13
picks later and Nix would have probably not have lasted until
then. A trade down
a few picks might have been optimal but it’s not always easy to get
good value for trading down.
FlyingElvis
After a
slightly above average season in 2023 (winning percentage
.521), FE projects a bit below average for starters this year
due to an uninspiring saved team. FE could compete if
some starters surprise to the upside, but projections say that
FE could very well end up being fairly average again. The strength of
starters in both offense and defense are... average.
Strength: DLs. If
there is one spot where FE will probably not be average, it’s
DL. Maxx Crosby is
anything but. In
2023 he beat all DLs by almost 2 pts per game and he was the
overwhelming consensus for DL1 on most draft lists. Weekly matchups are
irrelevant for Crosby. A
no brainer in the 6th round.
Weakness: Backups.
There are some key positions where FE has no depth
whatsoever so injuries could be painful if they were to hit. QB is the most glaring
example. Josh Allen
being the #1 QB in the league, it is somewhat logical to wait
until later to draft a backup QB.
But to what extent?
He better stay up on his feet because B Young and D Jones
are bottom of barrel QBs. At
RB, no problem with Etienne and Jacobs, but who is RB3? Ekeler? He is a has-been who
has now changed team. At
WR, the backups are M Brown who is already injured, and D
Hopkins who was already over the hill two years ago.
Best Pick: K Salter. While other PQBFL
teams drafted college players purely based on 2025 potential, FE
grabbed Salter as their backup college player and 10th
college taken in the draft.
For 2024 potential only, Salter is by far the most likely
to finish #1 so he won’t be FE’s
backup after all.
Worst Pick: Josh Metellus. A DB in the 8th
round better be a star DB.
Metellus had a good 2023 but he was a no-name in
2020-2021-2022. There
is fluke potential and he was too expensive when he was taken.
BeaudoinBrothers
The Bros clearly drafted with the short-term in
mind in a “win
now” mode by targeting older players past their prime
but who slipped in the draft such as D Henry, C Kupp, and R
Mostert, in addition to drafting a rookie QB with their first
pick which is often good for the current season but a ding for
the saved team the following year.
Unsurprisingly Beaud has the highest strength of starters
according to projections in light of their moderate mortgaging
of the future.
Strength: WRs. Tyreek Hill was another move to win now
by trading for him before the draft to franchise him, and he
will anchor a very strong group of WRs which not only includes
Kupp but also Higgins, Ridley, Pittman, and Aiyuk.
Weakness: Backup rookies.
Because the Bros wanted to mitigate the mortgaging of the
future they took JJ McCarthy as second rookie and he will score
zilch this year. As
if it was not enough, Beaud also added Penix later in the draft. He might also not
score anything if Cousins stays healthy. This goes counter to
the overall strategy and makes little sense.
Best Pick: Tee Higgins. The Bros did not
absolutely need a WR at the end of the 6th round, but
considering how early young WRs were drafting and how old WRs
were out of fashion, one has to wonder how Higgins slipped
through the cracks. He’s
only 25 years old and about to become free agent next year –
he will no longer play in the shadow of J Chase. Even for 2024 given
the unclear contract situation of Chase, Higgins might be more
than simply a WR5 for the Bros.
Worst Pick: Jake Ferguson. This felt like punting
and wasting a pick on the next best available TE. All the top tier TEs
were taken by the 7th round so there was no need to
rush to pick “next best available TE”
as early as the 8th round.
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