Analysis of the 2023 PQBFL Draft

ProfessorMJ

After a dominant performance in 2021, ProfMJ crashed and burned in 2022 by finishing in the bottom third of the standings.  Prof’s offensive saved team this year is not particularly strong but at least due to finishing first in injury points, Prof could draft first in most rounds of the draft.  Based on preseason projections, Prof should have an average team. 

Strength: Defense.  Prof’s saved team was much better on defense than offense and also added who is arguably the league’s top IDP Oluokun.  On top of IDP, Prof also took the Eagles defense who were dominant in 2022.  As a result, Prof projects to be the best defensive team in the PQBFL. 

Weakness: College.  Prof drafted not 1, not 2, but 3 college WRs.  This position typically scores less in college than QBs and even RBs.  Prof would have been better off drafting 2 college WRs with 2024 in mind, but at least take one college QB to put some points on the board in 2023.

Best Pick: Ernest Jones.  Considering how early LBs were drafted this year, especially the young ones, it is amazing that E Jones was still available in the 19^th round.  He plays on a defense which will be weak so his tackle opportunities will be plenty and there is no turnaround plan in sight for the Rams so he will hold good value in 2024 as well and won’t be cut since Prof is already stacked on defense.  

Worst Pick: Jordan Addison.  Considering that B Young and CJ Stroud were taken in the 2^nd and 3^rd rounds, taking Addison with the first pick of the 5^th round was not particularly cheap and there were still plenty of rookie WRs available one round later, in fact Prof took another one in the 6^th round.  The problem is that at that stage in the 5^th round, Prof still did not have a QB and no QB had been taken since the 3^rd round so it was imminent that T Lawrence would be gone.  This is exactly what happened – Old took Lawrence later in the 5^th and Prof ends up with weak QBs and two overpriced rookie WRs.

Ballers

Besides Kyler Murray (Adm), no PQBFL team had a decline in value for franchise player greater than the Ballers with Dalvin Cook, which stings for 2023.  The Ballers franchised Diggs instead which is fine but he’s arguably no better than the 5^th WR in the PQBFL so not a prime quality franchise player.  At least Ball had the first pick overall and grabbed the best WR available Kupp with a logical pick.

Strength: Starting WRs.  Considering that Diggs and Kupp are the top two players on the Ballers’ roster it only makes sense that starting WRs be the team strength.  This duo’s combined projection is 30.8, significantly ahead of any other team in the PQBFL (Old is second with 28.5).

Weakness: Rookies.  Sean Tucker + Rashee Rice + Michael Mayer.  It’s worth informing the audience about who they are because they were probably off the radar for many PQBFL teams.  Tucker is an undrafted RB for the Bucs who was saved by Ball so his talent is limited.  In contrast, at least Michael Mayer was drafted in the NFL, and a high pick at that (2^nd round, 35^th overall).  The problem is that he’s a TE and this position is traditionally very weak for rookies, even the very best ones such as Pitts a couple of years ago when he was taken early by FE (4^th round) and bombed out finishing ROO14 in the PQBFL.  The last rookie for Ball is Rashee Rice, also a second round pick in the NFL.  He is stuck in a crowded WR field in KC which also happens to have an elite TE and a great receiving RB.  Rice’s outlook is murky at best.

Best Pick: Lamar Jackson.  With three QBs being franchised this year, it seems the value of QBs is trending up and Jackson was good enough in the past to be franchised himself.  BAL keeps adding offensive weapons and now there is a new offensive coordinator in town to maximize Jackson’s skills.  He was great value towards the end of the 3^rd round and potential for going back to franchise player status.

Worst Pick: Deebo Samuel.  This writer has never been a fan of D Samuel and kept repeating in weekly summaries during 2021 that his level of production was not sustainable.  Then in 2022 what had to happen did happen: Samuel fell off a cliff in part because Aiyuk is improving and McCaffrey was added.  A 4^th round pick was expensive for Samuel who was WR29 in 2022 and was beat by his own teammate Aiyuk.  Odds are that Samuel will again not be starting WR material (top 18 WR).

Decepticons

Dec decided to plan for the future rather than try to dominate 2023.  The last time this strategy was done with so much emphasis it was 2020 when Prof was an expansion team and while their 2020 season was dreadful it did lead to the PQBFL championship in 2021.  Dec drafted defensive players early and often; only one of them can be cut in 2024.  On offense, Breece Hall is a great candidate for franchise player in 2024 but will be in a recovery year due to his knee in 2023 and will share carries with D Cook.  J Taylor came with a discount because he might miss some games in 2023 but if he finds a new home in 2024 his value will rise.  And as if it was not clear enough that Dec is playing for 2024, they only drafted one team defense and it’s not even a great one – the Chiefs. 

Strength: LBs.  It’s uncertain whether S Leonard will ever return to form but for Dec it might not matter because they also drafted Z Franklin who will rack up tackles on this defense which should be on the field a lot, even more so if Leonard is not healthy.  And if Leonard is healthy, then it’s back to top 5 LB.  Dre Greenlaw is a high quality backup behind Dec’s duo of Colts LBs.

Weakness: WR depth.  After Waddle, Dec has D Hopkins and Lockett who are aging and go in the opposite direction of Dec’s strategy.  T Burks is already injured and Doubs might never emerge if C Watson becomes the WR1 in GB not to mention their unproven QB.

Best Pick: Jaylen Waddle.  In an era where an increasing number of WRs are being franchised, Waddle not only fit the mold of what Dec was trying to achieve during the draft but is also on the cusp of becoming an elite WR even as early as this year especially if Ty Hill slows down.

Worst Pick: Jalen Pitre.  History is littered with DBs who did not last long at the top of their position.  Pitre had a great rookie year in 2022 but that was based on the Texans having a very poor defense; Pitre himself had a very high missed tackle rate.  He better clean that up otherwise it’s not hard to see the coaches changing the defensive scheme in a way that would cause a decline in Pitre’s stats.  Pitre was not cheap in the 6^th round and no other DB was taken until the 10^th round.

OldNo7

After the draft it looks like OldNo7 is projecting to be slightly below average for the strength of starters and second best team for key backups, so the end result is probably somewhere in the middle for Old’s outlook this season.  What helps was not so much Old’s saved players which are good but not great, but it’s rather the franchise players McCaffrey and Ty Hill which are at the top or near the top at their position. 

Strength: RBs+WRs.  For core position players RBs and WRs, if taking the sum of projections of the top 5, Old ranks first at both positions.  Old is loaded for starters and backups alike: McCaffrey + N Harris as starting RBs, with Kamara + Pacheco + D Cook as backups, and Ty Hill + Amon Ra as starting WRs, with Godwin + McLaurin + DJ Moore as backups.  That group of 10 guys has a combined projection of 108.8 which is far more than any other PQBFL team, heck 4 PQBFL teams are below 87 so Old smokes them.

Weakness: DLs.  Sam Hubbard was saved and he’s arguably not top 9 DLs in the PQBFL.  Then Old made a homer pick with Karlaftis who is a bit of an unproven lineman and possibly not top 18 DL in the league, and for Old’s final DL Onyemata has never had more than 6.5 sacks in 7 seasons and is not a tackle machine either.

Best Pick: T Lawrence.  Old needed a QB due to having only saved Prescott; in the 5^th round Lawrence was the last starter-worthy QB available when Old pulled the trigger.  It was great value and Lawrence even has upside that others do not have with added weapons this year such as Ridley. 

Worst Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba.  Five rookies were taken in the first three rounds (including one franchise) but they were all RBs or QBs.  Old was the first to pick a rookie WR and 4^th round seemed expensive.  That said, 5 of the next 14 picks were rookies so at least Old triggered a run on rookies but Smith-Njigba is only WR3 in Seattle behind Lockett and Metcalf on a run-first team so it’s hard to get excited.  If Old wanted a rookie WR then the best one available was J Addison, not Smith-Njigba.

WaxOnWaxOff

Wax came close to winning in 2022 and carries a good saved team to 2023, and their franchise players automatically makes them a team to watch this season: Ju Jefferson is by far the best WR to own now, and Barkley is a safe top 5 RB especially with concerns around others such as J Taylor and J Jacobs. Wax also made a couple of trades before the draft to further bolster their saved team; the only cloud on Wax’s saved team is the arrival of Ridley in Jax which might cut into C Kirk’s workload.

Strength: Overall team balance.  Wax built a balanced team via the draft which projects them second in strength of starters, but they are arguably the most balanced team in the PQBFL because Wax has far better IDPs than Beaud.  Except for WR, Wax does not have the top player at any position but has an above average starter almost everywhere on the roster (Burrow, Hockenson, Bosa, Bolton, Baker, CJ Stroud, Maye).

Weakness: QB depth.  Burrow is a top 4 QB but he’s already injured so Wax needed QB depth more than other teams.  Stafford could be a stop gap measure but it’s unclear if he’s healthy himself, and Pickett has not shown much promise yet.

Best Pick: Roschon Johnson.  Wax acquired Khalil Herbert at modest cost before the draft but it’s not clear whether he can hold on to the starting job.  Combining with rookie R Johnson is a great match and was also cheap with R Johnson being taken in the 13^th round. 

Worst Pick: Samaje Perine.  After Barkley, Wax was in need of a RB2 because saved players AJ Dillon, E Elliott, and K Herbert are possibly not starter material (top 18).  Wax did not draft a RB until the 8^th round and by then it was slim pickings except one which would have been an ideal fit for Wax as a short-term viable RB: Dalvin Cook.  Instead Wax drafted Perine, a somewhat head scratching move.  Cook was gobbled up immediately after by OldNo7.

Admirals

Due to a schedule conflict, the Adm GM had to delegate some drafting decisions via draft list because of not being able to attend the PQBFL draft.  The result can never be ideal but in the circumstances it looks decent; based on preseason projections Adm is in the middle of the pack for starters.  The issue is more for backups where Adm is in the tight block of 4 teams at the bottom.

GloriousBastards

The GloriousBastards will benefit in 2023 from a strong saved team both on offense and defense.  D Pierce and A Jones being saved allowed Bas to wait a bit for RBs during the draft because they had firepower on the bench, and Ju Fields was the best saved QB (ignoring franchise QBs) in the PQBFL.  Caleb Williams not only has value in 2023 as the top college player but also should have the most value for 2024 as well.  On defense Bas got to keep M Fitzpatrick because the PQBFL voted to cut B Wagner but then ignored him during the draft until he was taken in the very last round, which makes no sense. 

Strength: QBs.  Herbert has a new rookie WR and a new offensive coordinator and could very well join the group of very best QBs this year.  Fields is the strongest QB2 in the PQBFL and Purdy seems like a solid QB3 who could actually end up being worth even more than that.

Weakness: RBs.  As mentioned above Bas had the luxury of affording to wait on RBs during the draft, but that did not mean not taking any RBs until the 103th pick overall which is what Bas did.  There is very little chance Ja Williams will have the same role in NO than he did in Detroit and there is a reason why nobody else took him in the first 100 picks.  That means A Jones and D Pierce, who could have been top notch backups, are actually weak starters. 

Best Pick: DeVonta Smith.  Bas had a need for WR2 behind J Chase and D Smith was there for the taking at the end of the 4^th round.  There was a big dropoff after him in WR quality and Bas made the perfect call which fit perfectly with the way their roster was shaping up.

Worst Pick: Roquan Smith. In 2022, Ro Smith was the top defensive player taken (Beaud) as the first pick of the 5^th round.  In 2019-2020-2021, the top IDP was Darius Leonard (Dec twice and Bas once) in the 4^th round in each of those three years.  This year it’s not that clear that Ro Smith is the best IDP the way that D Leonard was in the past, and taking him in the 3^rd round was too early by historical standards.

FlyingElvis

Strength: RBs.  Ekeler is probably the second best RB in the PQBFL in the opinion of most people, right behind McCaffrey (Old).  For RB2 FE does not have a top notch every-week starter but playing a rotation of Dobbins-Etienne-Akers based on matchups should provide better than average production. 

Weakness: Depth.  While FE projects well for starters, FE seems a bit more exposed to injuries than other teams.  First off, FE is the only team which only drafted 2 QBs so Josh Allen better not get injured because it will fall back to Jordan Love and no one else.  FE also only drafted one college player and it’s not a QB, it’s a RB.  That makes tough matchups difficult to overcome, not to mention that FE will score a goose egg when Corum is on bye unless FE acquires a college player via trade during the season.  Trading with teams in the bottom half of the standings is generally easier at positions other than college however so it’s unclear if such a trade can easily happen. 

Best Pick: A Cooper.  The PQBFL voted to cut A Cooper from FE’s roster and let Kittle slide into FE’s saved team.  For reference, M Andrews was taken in the 3^rd round by Prof and Pitts was taken in the 4^th round by Dec.  So if Cooper is so valuable to cut him instead of Kittle, why did Cooper drop to FE in the 6^th round?  A wonderful grab by FE at that point, not to mention that FE happened to have a need for WR2 behind G Wilson.

Worst Pick: Marvin Mims.  If stars align, perhaps Mims could have a decent season for example if R Wilson does improve from his terrible 2022 season, if Jeudy is injured for longer than expected, and if Sutton gets injured himself.  But Mims in the 8^th round was too expensive considering that other similar rookie WRs such as Jayden Reed (Dec) and Mingo (Adm) were taken in the 12^th round.  Not to mention that FE took B Young at #9 overall so rookie was not even a priority in the 8^th round for FE. 

BeaudoinBrothers

The BeaudoinBrothers come into 2023 with an above average saved team and are set up for a “win now” mode rather than build for the future.  Franchise player TE Kelce fits the mold and the Bros’ first pick rookie Richardson even more so – high value in 2023 but might not even be worth a cut player in 2024.

Strength: Rookies.  Bijan Robinson (Bas) is worth more than Richardson in the long run but for 2023 only Richardson is possibly the best rookie available because QBs normally outscore RBs.  On top of that the Bros added two rookie RBs and the best rookie TE available Kincaid. 

Weakness: LBs.  The Bros saved an average quality starting LB (Logan Wilson) and an ancient one (Lavonte David) so they had a need during the draft but are the only team which ended up with a roster of only 3 LBs.  Quay Walker does not have a long track record and comes with risk.

Best Pick: R Stevenson.  When it was the Bros’ pick at #25 overall, by then the Bros’ top players including franchise were QB-WR-TE-ROO so there was a great need for RB.  None of the previous 10 picks between #16 and #25 were RBs and Stevenson fell into Beaud’s lap.  He won’t dominate the position but he will provide a floor and was good value in the 4^th round.

Worst Pick: Zach Charbonnet.  It’s hard to argue that rookies are a strength and at the same time that the worst pick was a rookie, but 6^th round for Charbonnet was a reach considering that no other rookie RB was taken after that until the 10^th round.

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