Analysis of the 2022 PQBFL Draft


ProfessorMJ

ProfMini 

ProfMJ crushed the competition in 2021 by winning the league finishing more than 20 rank points ahead of Dec, but the offseason started on the wrong foot with T Brady’s retirement which had a trickle down effect on the value of M Evans, but thankfully that decision was reversed so Prof comes into 2022 with the best saved team by far.  The franchise players are a bit more questionable because T Etienne and J Williams are mostly valuable in 2023 and beyond, and this issue was compounded by the fact that Prof drafted so much with 2023 in mind that Prof is only ranked 7th in strength of starters so they are not overwhelming favorites to repeat.

Strength: Backups on offense.  Prof has the best QB2 (Burrow), best duo of RB3-4 (Jav Williams + Pollard), and best duo of WR3-4 (Di Johnson + B Cooks).  Prof can sustain key injuries without any problem especially because one of their franchise players (Jav Williams) possibly not even being a starting RB because his projection is below both D Swift and J Conner.

Weakness: College.  When you boast the best saved team and are setup to win in the short-term, one of the worst things you can do is to draft not one, but two college WRs.  Smith-Njigba and Boutte will possibly be the most two valuable rookie WRs for 2023 but the scoring of college WRs is not nearly as high as college QB so Prof will be hampered in 2022.  It is questionable that it was worth for Prof to bank on the future given how their team was set up for 2022 with quality saved players.

Best Pick: M Garrett.  Last year by the time we reached the end of the 6th round there were 6 defensive players taken.  This year arguably the second most valuable defensive player was Garrett and he was a bargain as the second defensive player taken at that spot.

Worst Pick: Brandin Cooks.  Prof had drafted a WR one round prior (Di Johnson at the end of the 4th round) and there were still many of the top rookies available.  Prof took Cooks at the end of the 5th round and waited one round later (end of 6th) to take a rookie but 4 of the next 8 picks were rookies before it came back to Prof who took a rookie one round too late.

 

 

Ballers

BallMini


The Ballers are not carrying a particularly great saved team into 2022 except perhaps Zach Ertz, the Bucs defense, and Eric Kendricks which are starting material.  The rest are all backups, some of them on the verge of being out of the NFL for example AJ Green and maybe even Zack Moss if he does not start to perform sooner rather than later.  To make matters worse the Ballers were 7th in injury points so not a great drafting position, and in the first round Ball could have had a good pick (2nd) but franchised two players so it turned out to be a moot point.  All of this means the Ballers were facing head winds coming into the draft.

Strength: WRs.  Diggs is not the best WR1 in the PQBFL but he’s not far off, T Higgins has the highest projection of any WR2 in the PQBFL except for Bas who used the franchise spot and their 1st round pick to grab elite WRs, and for WR3 the Ballers have Amon-Ra St.Brown.  Only Bas (again) has a better WR3 than Ball, and also Old with C Godwin but currently banged up.

Weakness: QBs.  The Ballers have the lowest strength of starters overall, but nonetheless there is not a single position where they rank dead last.  So considering that, the most salient weakness might be QB where A Rodgers is the starter but who will he throw to?  Mac Jones and J Goff might not even be top 18 in a 9-team league so worth QB3 not QB2.

Best Pick: Ken Walker III.  Rookie RBs tend to be in high demand but somehow Walker slipped to the end of the 6th round.  The Seahawks are a running team, C Carson has retired, and let’s not forget that R Penny was so often injured from 2018 to 2020 that he never had more than 419 rushing yards in any season until last year.  In 2021 he was better at 749 rushing yards but the Hawks only gave him a one-year contract because they don’t seem convinced; Walker is probably the better long-term play.

Worst Pick: Tee Higgins.  Well Higgins is mentioned above as a team strength but one has to wonder if Higgins might have been available in the 3rd round, in other words perhaps it was not necessary to reach for Higgins in the second round.  Between the time Ball took Higgins at 11th overall and until Ball was back on the clock at 21st overall, only Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown were taken so Higgins might have been there for the taking later which means Ball could have had a much safer RB than Akers if Ball had drafted a RB in the second round instead of the third round.

 

Decepticons

DecMini


The ‘Cons had a great 2021 season, being carried by a handful of top players but the team did not have that much depth.  That means Dec had 4 players worth considering for franchise player and kept Kupp + N Harris.  Dec tried to shop Mixon and Mahomes to extract some value but failed.  With those guys gone, Dec did the best they could with the rest for the saved team but it was not an impressive crew of backups and Hopkins getting suspended did not help matters.  Saved defensive players are much better especially D Leonard and J Adams, but the offensive side was a sorry affair with lots of holes to fill during the draft. 

Strength: Backup RBs.  No other PQBFL team has a RB5 as potent as K Hunt and his value might even be higher if he ends up being traded as he wishes.  Dec’s RB3-4 are D Montgomery and E Mitchell, not superstars but they both have little competition for carries so they are one of the best backup duos should Fournette or N Harris get injured.

Weakness: Depth.  The Decepticons decided a new experiment this year: going bare bones at many positions.  Only drafting one team defense has been done before so it’s not a novel idea, but not only it leads to a zero during the season when the Rams will be on bye, but it also leads to a suboptimal outcome when the Rams play a dangerous offense because Dec will not be able to exploit a better matchup for a lesser defense.  Nonetheless, it might not be as much as a gamble as going with only 2 QBs because of the high importance of the position and it’s not like Mahomes and Tua Tago have been models of health recently.  Going with only 4 WRs is thin as well although Dec might be banking on upgrading a rookie WR if the need presents itself so at least a plan B exists.  Hopefully it is not necessarily too early in the season: D Hopkins is one of Dec’s 4 WRs so for the first six weeks of the season, Dec actually has 3 WRs not 4 due to Hopkins’ suspension.  That is not comfortable.

Best Pick: Romeo Doubs.  A Rodgers usually does not throw to rookie WRs much but he might not have a choice this year.  Doubs was a late 4th round pick for the Packers but unlike Burks (see below) all news around Doubs are positive so far and he might actually have an even bigger role than C Watson who the Packers drafted early in the 2nd round of the NFL draft, well before Doubs.

Worst Pick: Treylon Burks.  There has been a lot of bad news about Burks during the offseason.  He was not in shape early in camp, he’s dropping passes, he had asthma problems, and then got injured.  What else could go wrong?  Not to mention that he’s a raw WR to begin with so odds don’t look great that he could outproduce his 6th round status this year.  The price paid looks awful compared to Doubs 9 rounds later than Burks.


 

OldNo7

OldMini


Old finished last in 2021 in part due to injuries (McCaffrey missing chunks of the season) and finished 3rd in injury points, barely behind Wax with 2036 injury points for Wax vs 2026 injury points for Old.  Having Wax draft in front of Old for several rounds turned out to be painful because Wax made several excellent picks right in front of Old, and this was simply because of a mere 10 injury points in 2021.  At least Old has a better saved team than many other teams, thanks to players such as Dak Prescott, CEH, C Godwin, and Poyer.  Post-draft, based on strength of starters Old is in a close pack from 3rd to 7th so they have a realistic chance to compete during what promises to be a fairly balanced season without any team appearing to be far better than others.

Strength: Backup WRs.  If Godwin proves he’s healthy then him and McLaurin might be the best WR3-4 tandem of the PQBFL, even better than Prof’s stacked backup squad with Di Johnson and B Cooks.  Old’s WR5 is a stash for the future, the youngster DeVonta Smith probably won’t even be needed this year but he’s great to keep for 2023.

Weakness: Overall defensive side.  The only premier starter for IDP is the aging J Poyer, the rest is made up of journeyman LB DeVondre Campbell, DL Hubbard, and for defensive flex it might be the unproven Jamin Davis.  For team defense the 49ers should barely be top 9 in the PQBFL and the Chiefs was probably a homer pick.

Best Pick: Tyreek Hill.  Considering that after the first two rounds there were already 8 WRs off the board, Ty Hill was great value in the third round and there was a significant WR drop off after him. 

Worst Pick: De’Vondre Campbell.  Micah Parsons was taken 54th overall and Oluokun (the top defensive scorer of 2021) was taken immediately after at 55th overall.  Old panicked and took another LB at 56th overeall but the problem is that Campbell is nowhere near the caliber of the previous two.  Even worse still, Campbell has the same bye week as P Werner and J Davis.


 

WaxOnWaxOff

WaxMini


Wax had lots of injuries in 2021 but none of them were long term so Wax’s saved team in 2022 is not bad at all, plus Wax benefited from an advantageous drafting position.  Coincidentally Stafford is not one who contributed to injury points in 2021 but he might be the one of the very few with an injury concern coming into 2022 due to his throwing elbow.  However it might not matter if Trey Lance can take control and provide quality bench depth at QB behind franchise player Josh Allen.  After the draft Wax is one of the few being above average in both strength of starters and key backups so for the sum of the two, Wax ranks #1 in the PQBFL.  They seem to be the team to beat. 

Strength: IDPs.  TJ Watt returns to Wax as the team’s best defensive saved player.  He led the PQBFL last year with an average of 13.2 pts per game and not a whole lot has changed since 2021.  Then Wax added N Bosa in the draft, Bosa finished DL4 last year and he’s now healthier.  At DB B Baker could come back to his 2020 form but if not H Smith is more than serviceable as the 2nd best DB from 2021 and has a high floor as a safe play.

Weakness: Backup WRs.  Starter Allen Robinson is a shaky starter to begin with due to uncertainty about Stafford’s elbow, his move to a new team, and his status as WR2 behind Kupp, so Wax might need other decent backup WRs but he does not have them.  C Kirk was overpaid by the Jaguars and has not done much his entire career so he’s a question mark.  E Moore had a fine rookie season but he now has a rookie WR teammate to hold off, Garrett Wilson has a higher draft status with the Jets so Moore’s involvement in the offense is unclear.  And finally, DJ Chark and KJ Hamler might not even belong in the PQBFL.

Best Pick: AJ Dillon.  RBs were in fairly high demand early in the draft but somehow Dillon dropped to the 5th round.  With Wax’s starters being S Barkley and E Elliott which both have not played at elite level for a while, Dillon is not only a quality backup but fills a need for Wax to have one of the better backups.  It seems Dillon is on the verge of overtaking A Jones in GB and if it’s not this year then Dillon could have very good value in 2023.

Worst Pick: Chris Boswell.  Wax had by far the most solid draft in the opinion of this writer and the first 18 picks by Wax all seemed logical or have a good reason.  By carefully going down that list, none of them seem to belong as “worst pick”.  It’s not until the 19th round that we can find something modest to argue about, it looks like Wax simply wanted a homer pick for the backup kicker, one of the least important positions. 


 

 

Admirals

AdmMini


The Admirals had a slow season start in 2021 but were the best team in the league between weeks 11-18, finishing in the top 3 six times in the last 7 weeks and top 2 five times.  If the season had continued Adm was probably going to beat both Dec and FE but Adm ran out of time.  Adm is banking on carrying this momentum to 2022 but it might be easier said than done.  Adm has a diminished saved team because not one but two DLs moved to LB: J Bosa and D Hunter.  So instead of having a fantastic saved defensive team, Adm has a very good one, still #1 in the PQBFL.  Offense is a bit more shaky with the best two being D Harris and R Penny but both of those RBs have to look over their shoulder for younger RBs who are trying to take over. 

Strength: QBs.  Ok maybe not during the first half of the year because D Watson is suspended.  But once he comes back, he might be the most valuable backup QB in the PQBFL especially for the long-term, and K Murray is franchise player caliber.

Weakness: Rookies.  Based on projections, Adm has the weakest starting rookie, the weakest backup rookie, and the weakest second backup rookie.  Starter Skyy Moore has potential by virtue of having a Chiefs uniform, but at the moment he’s buried on the depth chart behind JJSS, Valdes-Scantling, and Hardman so WR4 at best.  That’s not even mentioning Kelce and the fact that CEH can be involved in the passing game too.  Backup C Watson similarly has a good QB but he’s also WR4 on his NFL team at best, and perhaps even behind fellow rookie Doubs which would make him WR5.  Likewise, rookie RB Davis-Price is third RB on the 49ers depth chart.

Best Pick: Devin White.  Yes, he had an off year in 2021.  But Lavonte David is not getting any younger and White is healthy.  White was a 4th round pick in 2021 so the discount in 2022 as 8th round pick is very alluring for someone with potential to return back to top 5 LBs. 

Worst Pick: Mike Williams.  Did Adm fall in love with Williams because he was a cinderella pick in 2021?  Williams was taken just one spot behind DJ Moore at 26th overall which is pretty darn expensive.  Dionte Johnson and McLaurin were taken after Mike Williams, both of which are WR1 on their team unlike Williams.

 

 

GloriousBastards

BasMini


The Bastards were among the league favorites in 2021 thanks to a great saved team but things did not work out and the team finished a disappointing 7th.  This year again Bas ranks near the top for strength of starters but the main difference this year is that key backups are expected to be far weaker than in 2021, in fact GB ranks dead last in that regard this year.  That means Bas can less afford injuries this year but if Bas remains healthy they could be near the top. 

Strength: WRs.  J Chase will possibly be a top 5 WR for years to come and Bas added D Adams in the first round.  This makes the best starting WR duo in the PQBFL and it’s not even close.  C Sutton will be on the bench and with his newfound QB will be one of the most luxurious backup WRs. 

Weakness: RBs.  None of Bas’ 5 RBs were clear undisputed starters on their NFL team at the time of the draft although Bas might have caught a break with Brian Robinson getting injured due to gun shots which elevates A Gibson back into a clear starter role.  A Jones is Bas’ RB1 but he will have to fight off a growing role given to AJ Dillon, Josh Jacobs has to contend with rookie Zamir White, M Carter will probably play second fiddle to Breece Hall, and K Herbert is simply waiting for Montgomery to get hurt.

Best Pick: Micah Parsons.  Parsons was the second LB drafted, a whopping 22 picks later than Ro Smith so he was arguably much better value.  In addition Bas started a LB run after Parsons because 5 of the next 12 picks were LB, none of which were of Parsons’ caliber except Devin White. 

Worst Pick: Gabriel Davis.  Davis did well in the NFL playoffs in 2021 so Bas must be banking on a continuation but Davis did very little prior to that.  A sixth round pick for Davis is a tough pill to swallow when established veterans such as Allen Robinson (8th round) and A Cooper (10th round) where taken much later.  In addition the WR position was not even a need for Bas at that point considering it’s the team strength.

 

 

FlyingElvis

FEMini


Thanks to having by far the best franchise player duo in the PQBFL J Taylor and Ekeler, FE is projecting to have an above average team in 2022.  In addition FE was able to save the best DB D James and one of the best non-franchise QB J Hurts who benefits from the arrival of AJ Brown.  The move of M Brown from Baltimore to Arizona is probably a net positive for FE as well so FE clearly has a decent saved team.  It could have been an even better offseason for FE if Malik Willis had been drafted by a team other than the Titans.  FE saved Willis, but it’s unclear that a team like the Titans will turn to him in 2022 rather than stick with Tannehill in the short-term.  Anyway, FE comes into 2022 by being the only team other than Wax who ranks above average in both strength of starters and key backups so FE is set to continue the 2021 success.

Strength: Starting RBs.  This one is easy, FE has two of the top four ranked RBs in the PQBFL and both were franchise players.  FE had no hesitation franchising them, and there is likewise no hesitation marking it as FE’s undisputed strength. 

Weakness: Backup LBs.  Oluokun is fine for LB1 but behind him it’s T Edmunds who has yet to put it all together and projects to be the second weakest LB2 in the PQBFL.  For LB3 FE has nobody at all for the moment because Jamie Collins is an NFL free agent still looking for a job so the cupboard is completely bare.  Oluokun better stay healthy.

Best Pick: Lamar Jackson.  It was not so long ago that L Jackson was worthy of being at least considered as franchise player material.  Sure he lost Marquise Brown but is R Bateman really worse?  Jackson is playing the final year of his contract and has maximum motivation.  He bulked up in the offseason and has potential to have improved far more than anybody anticipated.  The price paid in the 4th round was reasonable and there was a QB drop-off after him.

Worst Pick: Jalen Thompson.  The DB position is arguably less valuable than DL and LB, and FE already had the best DB in the land with Derwin James as a prime quality saved player.  So why on earth would FE want to be the first team in the PQBFL to draft a DB and do so as early as the 9th round?  Even Vonn Bell as a backup (saved DB) is a capable player so Thompson was a reach and not a need.

 

 

BeaudoinBrothers

BeaudMini


The Bros had a catastrophic 2021 season injury-wise but the upside was a good drafting position in 2022.  However the offseason 2022 was as poor as the 2021 season with Calvin Ridley being suspended for the entire season for gambling so that put a further hole in the Bros’ saved team.  Last year the Bros played for the short-term with picks such as Zach Wilson, C Carson, and James Robinson and all of those picks are predictably making the Bros weaker in 2022.  Consequently the Bros decided to play for 2023 more so than 2022 with several picks focused on the long-term because of a subpar saved team. 

Strength: TEs.  Kelce is probably TE1 on almost everybody’s list, ahead of M Andrews.  For backup TE the Bros will have Goedert, again.  Beaud has rarely needed Goedert to start in the last few years but just in case Kelce gets injured, Goedert has the highest projection of any backup TE in the PQBFL.

Weakness: Team defense.  The Broncos are not consensus top 10 defense, some lists have them outside the top 10, and with improvements to their offense they might play more prevent defense and give up chunks of yardage.  The Dolphins are top 10 on more lists than the Broncos, however the PQBFL scoring puts more emphasis on points allowed than turnovers and sacks and this is exactly where the Dolphins are weak so with PQBFL scoring the Dolphins are possibly not top 10.

Best Pick: Russell Wilson.  For the first time, Wilson will not be hampered by an drastically conservative game plan and he has excellent young receivers to throw to in addition to two capable RBs.  Will someone fall off his chair if Wilson ends up top 5 QB?  He has shown before he can do it despite less ideal circumstances.  He was a bargain as the first pick of the 6th round because all other teams already had their starting QB and were not looking for a backup QB which means Wilson slipped to Beaud who needed a starting QB desparately.

Worst Pick: Devin Lloyd.  The crowd has spoken: there was no other rookie LB drafted until 132nd overall so taking Lloyd at 59th was a huge price to pay.  He could have been available multiple rounds later considering the frenzy on offensive rookies this year.


 

PQBFL Home | Season 2022 | Standings 2022 | Leaders By Position 2022