ProfessorMJ
ProfMJ crushed the competition in 2021 by
winning the league finishing more
than 20 rank points ahead of Dec, but the offseason started on
the wrong foot
with T Brady’s retirement which had a trickle down effect on the
value of M
Evans, but thankfully that decision was reversed so Prof comes
into 2022 with
the best saved team by far.
The
franchise players are a bit more questionable because T Etienne
and J Williams are
mostly valuable in 2023 and beyond, and this issue was
compounded by the fact
that Prof drafted so much with 2023 in mind that Prof is only
ranked 7th
in strength of starters so they are not overwhelming favorites
to repeat.
Strength: Backups on offense. Prof has
the best QB2 (Burrow), best duo of RB3-4 (Jav Williams +
Pollard), and best duo
of WR3-4 (Di Johnson + B Cooks).
Prof
can sustain key injuries without any problem especially because
one of their
franchise players (Jav Williams) possibly not even being a
starting RB because
his projection is below both D Swift and J Conner.
Weakness: College.
When you boast the
best saved team and are setup to win in the short-term, one of
the worst things
you can do is to draft not one, but two college WRs. Smith-Njigba and
Boutte will possibly be the
most two valuable rookie WRs for 2023 but the scoring of college
WRs is not
nearly as high as college QB so Prof will be hampered in 2022. It is questionable
that it was worth for Prof
to bank on the future given how their team was set up for 2022
with quality
saved players.
Best Pick: M Garrett.
Last year by the time we reached the end of the 6th
round
there were 6 defensive players taken.
This year arguably the second most valuable defensive
player was Garrett
and he was a bargain as the second defensive player taken at
that spot.
Worst Pick: Brandin Cooks.
Prof had drafted a WR one round prior (Di Johnson at the
end of the 4th
round) and there were still many of the top rookies available. Prof took Cooks at the
end of the 5th
round and waited one round later (end of 6th) to take
a rookie but 4
of the next 8 picks were rookies before it came back to Prof who
took a rookie
one round too late.
Ballers
The Ballers are not carrying a particularly
great saved team into 2022
except perhaps Zach Ertz, the Bucs defense, and Eric Kendricks
which are
starting material. The
rest are all
backups, some of them on the verge of being out of the NFL for
example AJ Green
and maybe even Zack Moss if he does not start to perform sooner
rather than
later. To make
matters worse the Ballers
were 7th in injury points so not a great drafting
position, and in
the first round Ball could have had a good pick (2nd)
but franchised
two players so it turned out to be a moot point. All of this means the
Ballers were facing
head winds coming into the draft.
Strength: WRs.
Diggs is not the best
WR1 in the PQBFL but he’s not far off, T Higgins has the highest
projection of
any WR2 in the PQBFL except for Bas who used the franchise spot
and their 1st
round pick to grab elite WRs, and for WR3 the Ballers have
Amon-Ra St.Brown. Only
Bas (again) has a better WR3 than Ball,
and also Old with C Godwin but currently banged up.
Weakness: QBs.
The Ballers have the
lowest strength of starters overall, but nonetheless there is
not a single
position where they rank dead last. So
considering that, the most salient weakness might be QB where A
Rodgers is the
starter but who will he throw to?
Mac
Jones and J Goff might not even be top 18 in a 9-team league so
worth QB3 not
QB2.
Best Pick: Ken Walker III.
Rookie RBs tend to be in high demand but somehow Walker
slipped to the
end of the 6th round.
The
Seahawks are a running team, C Carson has retired, and let’s not
forget that R
Penny was so often injured from 2018 to 2020 that he never had
more than 419
rushing yards in any season until last year.
In 2021 he was better at 749 rushing yards but the Hawks
only gave him a
one-year contract because they don’t seem convinced; Walker is
probably the
better long-term play.
Worst Pick: Tee Higgins.
Well Higgins is mentioned above as a team strength but
one has to wonder
if Higgins might have been available in the 3rd
round, in other
words perhaps it was not necessary to reach for Higgins in the
second
round. Between the
time Ball took Higgins
at 11th overall and until Ball was back on the clock
at 21st
overall, only Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown were taken so Higgins
might have been
there for the taking later which means Ball could have had a
much safer RB than
Akers if Ball had drafted a RB in the second round instead of
the third round.
Decepticons
The ‘Cons had a great 2021 season, being
carried by a handful of top
players but the team did not have that much depth. That means Dec had 4
players worth considering
for franchise player and kept Kupp + N Harris.
Dec tried to shop Mixon and Mahomes to extract some value
but
failed. With those
guys gone, Dec did
the best they could with the rest for the saved team but it was
not an
impressive crew of backups and Hopkins getting suspended did not
help
matters. Saved
defensive players are much
better especially D Leonard and J Adams, but the offensive side
was a sorry
affair with lots of holes to fill during the draft.
Strength: Backup RBs. No other PQBFL
team has a RB5 as potent as K Hunt and his value might even be
higher if he
ends up being traded as he wishes.
Dec’s
RB3-4 are D Montgomery and E Mitchell, not superstars but they
both have little
competition for carries so they are one of the best backup duos
should
Fournette or N Harris get injured.
Weakness: Depth.
The Decepticons
decided a new experiment this year: going bare bones at many
positions. Only
drafting one team defense has been done
before so it’s not a novel idea, but not only it leads to a zero
during the
season when the Rams will be on bye, but it also leads to a
suboptimal outcome
when the Rams play a dangerous offense because Dec will not be
able to exploit
a better matchup for a lesser defense. Nonetheless,
it might not be as much as a gamble as going with only 2 QBs
because of the
high importance of the position and it’s not like Mahomes and
Tua Tago have
been models of health recently.
Going
with only 4 WRs is thin as well although Dec might be banking on
upgrading a
rookie WR if the need presents itself so at least a plan B
exists. Hopefully
it is not necessarily too early in
the season: D Hopkins is one of Dec’s 4 WRs so for the first six
weeks of the
season, Dec actually has 3 WRs not 4 due to Hopkins’ suspension. That is not
comfortable.
Best Pick: Romeo Doubs.
A Rodgers usually does not throw to rookie WRs much but
he might not
have a choice this year. Doubs
was a
late 4th round pick for the Packers but unlike Burks
(see below) all
news around Doubs are positive so far and he might actually have
an even bigger
role than C Watson who the Packers drafted early in the 2nd
round of
the NFL draft, well before Doubs.
Worst Pick: Treylon Burks.
There has been a lot of bad news about Burks during the
offseason. He was
not in shape early in camp, he’s
dropping passes, he had asthma problems, and then got injured. What else could go
wrong? Not to
mention that he’s a raw WR to begin
with so odds don’t look great that he could outproduce his 6th
round
status this year. The
price paid looks
awful compared to Doubs 9 rounds later than Burks.
OldNo7
Old finished last in 2021 in part due to
injuries (McCaffrey missing chunks
of the season) and finished 3rd in injury points,
barely behind Wax
with 2036 injury points for Wax vs 2026 injury points for Old. Having Wax draft in
front of Old for several
rounds turned out to be painful because Wax made several
excellent picks right
in front of Old, and this was simply because of a mere 10 injury
points in
2021. At least Old
has a better saved
team than many other teams, thanks to players such as Dak
Prescott, CEH, C
Godwin, and Poyer. Post-draft,
based on
strength of starters Old is in a close pack from 3rd
to 7th
so they have a realistic chance to compete during what promises
to be a fairly balanced
season without any team appearing to be far better than others.
Strength: Backup WRs. If Godwin proves
he’s healthy then him and McLaurin might be the best WR3-4
tandem of the PQBFL,
even better than Prof’s stacked backup squad with Di Johnson and
B Cooks. Old’s WR5
is a stash for the future, the
youngster DeVonta Smith probably won’t even be needed this year
but he’s great
to keep for 2023.
Weakness: Overall defensive side. The
only premier starter for IDP is the aging J Poyer, the rest is
made up of
journeyman LB DeVondre Campbell, DL Hubbard, and for defensive
flex it might be
the unproven Jamin Davis. For
team
defense the 49ers should barely be top 9 in the PQBFL and the
Chiefs was probably
a homer pick.
Best Pick: Tyreek Hill.
Considering that after the first two rounds there were
already 8 WRs off
the board, Ty Hill was great value in the third round and there
was a
significant WR drop off after him.
Worst Pick: De’Vondre Campbell.
Micah Parsons was taken 54th overall and
Oluokun (the top
defensive scorer of 2021) was taken immediately after at 55th
overall. Old
panicked and took another
LB at 56th overeall but the problem is that Campbell
is nowhere near
the caliber of the previous two.
Even
worse still, Campbell has the same bye week as P Werner and J
Davis.
WaxOnWaxOff
Wax had lots of injuries in 2021 but none of
them were long term so Wax’s
saved team in 2022 is not bad at all, plus Wax benefited from an
advantageous
drafting position. Coincidentally
Stafford
is not one who contributed to injury points in 2021 but he might
be
the one of the very few with an injury concern coming into 2022
due to his
throwing elbow. However
it might not
matter if Trey Lance can take control and provide quality bench
depth at QB
behind franchise player Josh Allen.
After the draft Wax is one of the few being above average
in both strength
of starters and key backups so for the sum of the two, Wax ranks
#1 in the
PQBFL. They seem to
be the team to
beat.
Strength: IDPs.
TJ Watt returns to Wax
as the team’s best defensive saved player.
He led the PQBFL last year with an average of 13.2 pts
per game and not
a whole lot has changed since 2021. Then
Wax added N Bosa in the draft, Bosa finished DL4 last year and
he’s now
healthier. At DB B
Baker could come back
to his 2020 form but if not H Smith is more than serviceable as
the 2nd
best DB from 2021 and has a high floor as a safe play.
Weakness: Backup WRs. Starter Allen
Robinson is a shaky starter to begin with due to uncertainty
about Stafford’s
elbow, his move to a new team, and his status as WR2 behind
Kupp, so Wax might
need other decent backup WRs but he does not have them. C Kirk was overpaid by
the Jaguars and has
not done much his entire career so he’s a question mark. E Moore had a fine
rookie season but he now
has a rookie WR teammate to hold off, Garrett Wilson has a
higher draft status
with the Jets so Moore’s involvement in the offense is unclear. And finally, DJ Chark
and KJ Hamler might not
even belong in the PQBFL.
Best Pick: AJ Dillon.
RBs were in fairly high demand early in the draft but
somehow Dillon
dropped to the 5th round.
With Wax’s starters being S Barkley and E Elliott which
both have not
played at elite level for a while, Dillon is not only a quality
backup but
fills a need for Wax to have one of the better backups. It seems Dillon is on
the verge of overtaking
A Jones in GB and if it’s not this year then Dillon could have
very good value
in 2023.
Worst Pick: Chris Boswell.
Wax had by far the most solid draft in the opinion of
this writer and
the first 18 picks by Wax all seemed logical or have a good
reason. By
carefully going down that list, none of
them seem to belong as “worst pick”.
It’s not until the 19th round that we can find
something
modest to argue about, it looks like Wax simply wanted a homer
pick for the
backup kicker, one of the least important positions.
Admirals
The Admirals had a slow season start in 2021
but were the best team in the
league between weeks 11-18, finishing in the top 3 six times in
the last 7
weeks and top 2 five times.
If the
season had continued Adm was probably going to beat both Dec and
FE but Adm ran
out of time. Adm is
banking on carrying
this momentum to 2022 but it might be easier said than done. Adm has a diminished
saved team because not
one but two DLs moved to LB: J Bosa and D Hunter. So instead of having a
fantastic saved
defensive team, Adm has a very good one, still #1 in the PQBFL. Offense is a bit more
shaky with the best two
being D Harris and R Penny but both of those RBs have to look
over their
shoulder for younger RBs who are trying to take over.
Strength: QBs.
Ok maybe not during the
first half of the year because D Watson is suspended. But once he comes
back, he might be the most
valuable backup QB in the PQBFL especially for the long-term,
and K Murray is
franchise player caliber.
Weakness: Rookies.
Based on
projections, Adm has the weakest starting rookie, the weakest
backup rookie,
and the weakest second backup rookie.
Starter Skyy Moore has potential by virtue of having a
Chiefs uniform,
but at the moment he’s buried on the depth chart behind JJSS,
Valdes-Scantling,
and Hardman so WR4 at best.
That’s not
even mentioning Kelce and the fact that CEH can be involved in
the passing game
too. Backup C
Watson similarly has a
good QB but he’s also WR4 on his NFL team at best, and perhaps
even behind
fellow rookie Doubs which would make him WR5.
Likewise, rookie RB Davis-Price is third RB on the 49ers
depth chart.
Best Pick: Devin White.
Yes, he had an off year in 2021.
But Lavonte David is not getting any younger and White is
healthy. White was
a 4th round pick in 2021
so the discount in 2022 as 8th round pick is very
alluring for
someone with potential to return back to top 5 LBs.
Worst Pick: Mike Williams.
Did Adm fall in love with Williams because he was a
cinderella pick in
2021? Williams was
taken just one spot
behind DJ Moore at 26th overall which is pretty darn
expensive. Dionte
Johnson and McLaurin were taken after
Mike Williams, both of which are WR1 on their team unlike
Williams.
GloriousBastards
The Bastards were among the league favorites in
2021 thanks to a great
saved team but things did not work out and the team finished a
disappointing 7th.
This year again Bas ranks near the top for
strength of starters but the main difference this year is that
key backups are
expected to be far weaker than in 2021, in fact GB ranks dead
last in that
regard this year. That
means Bas can
less afford injuries this year but if Bas remains healthy they
could be near
the top.
Strength: WRs.
J Chase will possibly be
a top 5 WR for years to come and Bas added D Adams in the first
round. This makes
the best starting WR duo in the
PQBFL and it’s not even close.
C Sutton
will be on the bench and with his newfound QB will be one of the
most luxurious
backup WRs.
Weakness: RBs.
None of Bas’ 5 RBs were
clear undisputed starters on their NFL team at the time of the
draft although
Bas might have caught a break with Brian Robinson getting
injured due to gun shots
which elevates A Gibson back into a clear starter role. A Jones is Bas’ RB1
but he will have to fight
off a growing role given to AJ Dillon, Josh Jacobs has to
contend with rookie
Zamir White, M Carter will probably play second fiddle to Breece
Hall, and K
Herbert is simply waiting for Montgomery to get hurt.
Best Pick: Micah Parsons.
Parsons was the second LB drafted, a whopping 22 picks
later than Ro
Smith so he was arguably much better value.
In addition Bas started a LB run after Parsons because 5
of the next 12
picks were LB, none of which were of Parsons’ caliber except
Devin White.
Worst Pick: Gabriel Davis.
Davis did well in the NFL playoffs in 2021 so Bas must be
banking on a
continuation but Davis did very little prior to that. A sixth round pick for
Davis is a tough pill
to swallow when established veterans such as Allen Robinson (8th
round) and A Cooper (10th round) where taken much
later. In addition
the WR position was not even a
need for Bas at that point considering it’s the team strength.
FlyingElvis
Thanks to having by far the best franchise
player duo in the PQBFL J Taylor
and Ekeler, FE is projecting to have an above average team in
2022. In addition
FE was able to save the best DB D
James and one of the best non-franchise QB J Hurts who benefits
from the
arrival of AJ Brown. The
move of M Brown
from Baltimore to Arizona is probably a net positive for FE as
well so FE
clearly has a decent saved team.
It
could have been an even better offseason for FE if Malik Willis
had been
drafted by a team other than the Titans.
FE saved Willis, but it’s unclear that a team like the
Titans will turn
to him in 2022 rather than stick with Tannehill in the
short-term. Anyway,
FE comes into 2022 by being the only
team other than Wax who ranks above average in both strength of
starters and
key backups so FE is set to continue the 2021 success.
Strength: Starting RBs. This one is
easy, FE has two of the top four ranked RBs in the PQBFL and
both were
franchise players. FE
had no hesitation
franchising them, and there is likewise no hesitation marking it
as FE’s undisputed
strength.
Weakness: Backup LBs. Oluokun is fine
for LB1 but behind him it’s T Edmunds who has yet to put it all
together and
projects to be the second weakest LB2 in the PQBFL. For LB3 FE has nobody
at all for the moment
because Jamie Collins is an NFL free agent still looking for a
job so the
cupboard is completely bare.
Oluokun
better stay healthy.
Best Pick: Lamar Jackson.
It was not so long ago that L Jackson was worthy of being
at least
considered as franchise player material.
Sure he lost Marquise Brown but is R Bateman really
worse? Jackson is
playing the final year of his
contract and has maximum motivation. He
bulked up in the offseason and has potential to have improved
far more than
anybody anticipated. The
price paid in
the 4th round was reasonable and there was a QB
drop-off after him.
Worst Pick: Jalen Thompson.
The DB position is arguably less valuable than DL and LB,
and FE already
had the best DB in the land with Derwin James as a prime quality
saved
player. So why on
earth would FE want to
be the first team in the PQBFL to draft a DB and do so as early
as the 9th
round? Even Vonn
Bell as a backup (saved
DB) is a capable player so Thompson was a reach and not a need.
BeaudoinBrothers
The Bros had a catastrophic 2021 season
injury-wise but the upside was a
good drafting position in 2022.
However
the offseason 2022 was as poor as the 2021 season with Calvin
Ridley being
suspended for the entire season for gambling so that put a
further hole in the
Bros’ saved team. Last
year the Bros
played for the short-term with picks such as Zach Wilson, C
Carson, and James
Robinson and all of those picks are predictably making the Bros
weaker in 2022. Consequently
the Bros decided to play for
2023 more so than 2022 with several picks focused on the
long-term because of a
subpar saved team.
Strength: TEs.
Kelce is probably TE1 on
almost everybody’s list, ahead of M Andrews.
For backup TE the Bros will have Goedert, again. Beaud has rarely
needed Goedert to start in
the last few years but just in case Kelce gets injured, Goedert
has the highest
projection of any backup TE in the PQBFL.
Weakness: Team defense. The Broncos are
not consensus top 10 defense, some lists have them outside the
top 10, and with
improvements to their offense they might play more prevent
defense and give up
chunks of yardage. The
Dolphins are top
10 on more lists than the Broncos, however the PQBFL scoring
puts more emphasis
on points allowed than turnovers and sacks and this is exactly
where the
Dolphins are weak so with PQBFL scoring the Dolphins are
possibly not top 10.
Best Pick: Russell Wilson.
For the first time, Wilson will not be hampered by an
drastically
conservative game plan and he has excellent young receivers to
throw to in
addition to two capable RBs.
Will
someone fall off his chair if Wilson ends up top 5 QB? He has shown before he
can do it despite less
ideal circumstances. He
was a bargain as
the first pick of the 6th round because all other
teams already had
their starting QB and were not looking for a backup QB which
means Wilson
slipped to Beaud who needed a starting QB desparately.
Worst Pick: Devin Lloyd.
The crowd has spoken: there was no other rookie LB
drafted until 132nd
overall so taking Lloyd at 59th was a huge price to
pay. He could have
been available multiple rounds
later considering the frenzy on offensive rookies this year.
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