Analysis of the 2021 PQBFL Draft

ProfessorMJ

Prof enters year 2 of the franchise, a rough start was not surprising last year especially since Prof drafted for the future in 2020 but now the investments will start to pay dividends as Lawrence + Lance + Etienne were on the bench all of last year but now have an important presence on Prof’s saved roster this year.  In addition a couple of pre-draft trades for Brady and D Henderson at manageable cost helped boost Prof’s saved team further.  With a solid draft Prof seems to have better odds of finishing in the top half of the standings than the bottom half. 

Strength: QBs.  Brady was not at the top of the draft list for most, but in 2021 he has all his weapons back so he could return to top 5.  Burrow is the perfect complement as value for the future when Brady declines, and Tannehill is the best QB2 in the entire PQBFL. 

Weakness: Depth on defense.  Prof has a decent lineup on offense, but the saved team on defense was disastrous and the GM did not make any trade to improve it, forcing them to save a player who is not even on an NFL roster right now (KJ Wright) not to mention that J Hicks is deadwood and requested out of Arizona because he’s no longer a starting LB.  Prof drafted starters R Smith and CJ Mosley which are fine, but the best backup Jordyn Brooks is a question mark rather because he hardly ever played last year and now he’s about to get KJ Wright’s old role with uncertain results.

Best Pick: Tyreek Hill.  While amazingly there was not a single WR drafted in the first round, Prof took the best WR available in the draft in the second round which was great value.

Worst Pick: Mark Andrews.  Immediately after Kittle was drafted late in the 3^rd round by Adm, Prof panicked and rushed to draft Andrews who not only might have been available later but also Hockenson was still available at that time. 

Ballers

The Ballers are not carrying a great saved team from 2020 so that’s expected to be a drag, however thanks to a good draft the pre-season projections have the Ballers right behind Dec close to the middle of the pack for the strength of starters.  The Ballers are therefore hoping for the team’s first winning season since joining the league. 

Strength: Starting RBs.  If Barkley is healthy, the duo D Cook + Barkley could be the best in the PQBFL as early as this year, and once Barkley is fully recovered next year this might also potentially be the best franchise player duo for 2022. 

Weakness: QBs.  A Rodgers might have one last good season with the Packers left in him but he’s no longer ranked top 6 on most lists for 2021, Goff is one of the worst established starting QBs in the NFL, and Prof’s GM himself does not believe Cam Newton will hold on to the job since he drafted Mac Jones.

Best Pick: Stefon Diggs.  Similar to Prof, the Ballers got a first round quality WR in the second round when reception machine Diggs was surprisingly available. 

Worst Pick: Kedon Slovis.  After the best three college QBs were taken in the span of only 6 picks in the 7^th round, the Ballers joined the bandwagon and took Slovis early in the 8^th round which was not great value given that many observers do not think Slovis will be an NFL first round pick unlike the previous three. 

Decepticons

As in the last few years, the Decepticons have one of the better saved teams particularly because they could keep three low-end WR starters T Lockett, R Woods, and Ju Jones.  That automatically makes Dec one of the teams to watch however Dec drafted with 2022 in mind perhaps more than 2021 notably by selecting 4 rookies and 4 college players, not to mention that first round pick Najee Harris is a great candidate for franchise player 2022 but will probably be outscored by a few rookie QBs in 2021.  Consequently Dec’s projections for 2021 starters are not as strong as they could have been. 

Strength: Defense.  Dec was so stacked that they saved 7 defensive players instead of the minimum of 5 and topped if off by only drafting one IDP during the draft: the best one Darius Leonard.  Add that to the fact that Dec also saved the Rams defense then they are loaded once again.

Weakness: RBs.  Joe Mixon might work out ok but has not put together an elite season yet, and for RB2 there was talk in Philly that Miles Sanders is still dropping passes and fumbling like he was last year which makes for a shaky starter.  All three backup RBs on Dec’s team are also backups in the NFL – K Hunt, J Williams, and D Evans.

Best Pick: Darius Leonard.  Last year Dec took Leonard with the 4^th pick in the 4^th round, and like clockwork Dec picked Leonard with the 3^rd pick in the 4^th round this year.  With that pick, Dec caused a run of 5 more LBs all taken before a single DL or DB was drafted until Wax took A Donald in the 7^th round. 

Worst Pick: Gerald Everett.  Dec already had Noah Fant so there was no urgency to draft another TE and if Dec wanted another one, Everett would have been available at the tail end of the draft considering that guys like Gronk (14^th round) and Kmet (18^th round) were taken much later than Everett in the 9^th round.  Even Jimmy Graham could never have impressive stats in Seattle before – R Wilson simply does not use TEs much. 

OldNo7

Old has once again the best franchise player in the PQBFL McCaffrey although it did not work out last year due to injury.  McCaffrey is healthy now and is the best foundation a team can get.  However the saved team is less stellar with some guys on the downside of their career like M Gordon and A Brown, plus the fact that Old’s best defensive player Schobert was traded in the preseason from the Jaguars to the Steelers which lowers his appeal – it was an unfortunate trade for Old.

Strength: RBs.  Not only Old has the best RB1 in the league, but they also have the best RB2 (Elliott), the best RB3 (CEH), and M Gordon might be less enticing than before but as of week 1 he’s still an NFL starter so quite comfortable for an RB4.  To cap things off AJ Dillon is waiting in the wings as RB5 – quite a luxury to have.

Weakness: Individual Defenders.  Not only Old’s saved team on defense left to be desired, but Old waited until the 15^th round to draft an IDP so unless they can pull a rabbit out of a hat with one of their late picks, defense will be porous.

Best Pick: Dak Prescott.  QBs were given somewhat high value in this year’s draft with Josh Allen (1^st round), K Murray (2^nd round), L Jackson (3^rd round), and R Wilson (4^th round) being taken early.  Prescott came with a bit of an injury-worry discount but he was lighting up the scoreboard at the time of his injury in 2020 and there was a drop-off in QBs available after him so he was great value in the 5^th round. 

Worst Pick: Logan Thomas.  L Thomas was possibly the best TE available at the time Old took him, but a 7^th round pick for a journeyman who never did anything except one season was a questionable price to pay.

WaxOnWaxOff

Wax was trending towards having a middle of the road saved team but a couple of pre-draft trades boosted the team by acquiring DJ Chark and Chase Edmonds.  During the draft Wax spread selections quite evenly between starting positions which resulted in the team currently forecasted as high as second in the league for the strength of starters, but that came at the expense of having a bottom 3 strength of key backups.  Unfortunately second round pick DK Dobbins is already out for the year which will hurt those projections. 

Strength: Rookies.  Wax traded in the 5^th round for Trey Lance and everybody expects he will start over Garoppolo sooner rather than later and might actually be the second best rookie once he starts playing.  In the mean time, Wax has Trey Sermon one of the better rookie RBs available, and Jets rookie WR E Moore who apparently had a great camp and with a young QB, Moore could have considerable potential in the upcoming years.

Weakness: WRs.  Perhaps Ju Jefferson will be a top WR in the future but it’s still early days, he’s not elite yet so there is material downside.  DJ Moore was inconsistent last year and with Darnold throwing the ball and competition from other WRs on the team as well, he is not a stellar WR2.  Backups are even worse, DJ Chark and Deebo Samuel are decent bye week fillers but nothing more, so Wax better hope their top two WRs stay healthy.

Best Pick: TJ Hockenson.  The Lions will suck and will play from behind so they will need to throw, they don’t have WRs, and their new QB always prefers to throw underneath.  All indications are for a huge year for Hockenson.  

Worst Pick: Daniel Jones.  Wax already had Josh Allen and M Stafford so there was no need to draft a QB except at the very end.  If D Jones is needed this year then Wax is doomed; in addition Jones’ prospects are not even better for 2022 and beyond. 

Admirals

For the second straight season the Admirals did not have a RB worthy of being franchised and were again the only team to franchise a WR.  Thankfully it’s the best WR in the league but it puts Adm at a minor disadvantage nonetheless.  Adm’s saved team has potential for the future but 2021 might not be the year.  First off D Watson’s legal issues destroyed his potential for 2021 so he is probably dead weight until next year.  D Harris and J Jeudy are good promising saved players but are not starting caliber yet. 

Strength: Individual defenders.  Besides Dec, this might be the strongest group of IDPs.  When healthy, D Hunter is a top DL and he was sorely missed last year but even if he goes down J Bosa is a quality backup.  At LB B Martinez should be a tackle machine again, Oluokun was a great value pick, and Jaylon Smith could start on many other PQBFL teams.

Weakness: WR2.  Behind D Adams, Adm is the only team with a WR2 who does not project a double digit average.  Jeudy, R Anderson, and Golladay are all in the 9.5-9.9 range so unless one of them surprises Adm will struggle with the weekly choice of WR behind Adams all year.

Best Pick: Washington Defense.  While other teams neglected the defensive team position, Adm took the Skins who were already top notch last year, they return most of their starters, they drafted a LB in the first round, and they get Landon Collins back from injury.  Adm did not even have to overpay – the Bucs were taken before the Skins.

Worst Pick: Myles Gaskin.  It is unclear that Gaskin is really the starter in Miami with M Brown getting significant work so a 4^th round pick was too early for such a shaky RB.  RBs with similar question marks but with more talent were available later such as D Montgomery, M Sanders, and D Swift.

GloriousBastards

The GloriousBastards were the favorites to win the PQBFL before the draft because they had the best saved team by far.  First off they saved D Waller who was probably worth a 3^rd round pick considering this is where Kittle was drafted – Waller was the single most valuable saved player in the league.  Then Bas was able to save Josh Jacobs – the best saved RB in the PQBFL.  Third, Herbert was also the highest ranked QB of any saved QB, not to mention that Bas traded away Brady to Prof as a saved player to move up to draft with an additional pick in the 8^th round and also traded a couple of lesser RBs for more draft capital.  Bas might have overdone it a little because those trades meant Bas saved two defensive teams.  Drafting as many as 4 college players is more useful for 2022 than 2021 however and has possibly caused Bas to drop down a bit from pre-season league favorites.

Strength: LBs.  Bas is the only team in the PQBFL with a LB duo both projected to score double digits, D White is already clearly an elite LB and Zach Cunningham plays on a team so bad that there will be a boatload of tackle opportunities. 

Weakness: QBs.  Herbert is young and promising but he only has one year under his belt, after the top 6 QBs an argument can be made that for 2021 only, Brady and Rodgers are better to own than Herbert which would make Herbert QB9, borderline startable QB in a 9-team league.  That would normally mean having an above average backup QB available would make more sense to Bas than others, but Bas waited too long and ended up with turnover-prone Winston who might not keep his job, and Darnold who is one of the lowest ranked NFL starters. 

Best Pick: D’Andre Swift.  After drafting Gibson in the first round (plus Josh Jacobs saved), Bas had a growing hole at RB because they only had two RBs on the roster but D’Andre Swift was incredible value in the 6^th round.  In 2020 if we count franchise players, 17 RBs were taken among the first 33 players, this year Swift was the 19^th RB among the first 61 players, which is a heck of a difference versus 17/33. 

Worst Pick: Justin Fields.  Opinions seemed to vary regarding the value of rookie QBs and Bas was clearly at the high end of the scale by taking Fields in the second round.  That seemed quite a hefty price given that Trey Lance who is also not a starter yet, was saved by Prof (not cut) and traded for a 5^th round pick to Wax (including a swap 9/15).  Zach Wilson who is already a starter was also taken in the 5^th round. 

FlyingElvis

FE had a weak season in 2020, in addition the trade of injured Barkley for Ekeler and giving up a draft pick swap weakened FE’s position in 2021.  To make matters worse FE was drafting from the 8^th spot so FE had head winds going into the draft.  The one bright spot might be the defensive saved team where D James if healthy could return to 2018 form after missing most of 2019-2020; he is FE’s best defensive player.  At LB FE saved T Edmunds who had an off year in 2020 but remains one of the best young LBs with potential.

Strength: Key backups.  FE is projecting second best in the PQBFL for key backups (QB2+RB3+WR3+DefFlex2), only 0.1 behind Beaud as league best.  This is mostly because Jalen Hurts is a superior backup QB with high upside and D Montgomery is one of the best RB3 in the PQBFL.

Weakness: WRs.  This is a sorry group, saved players JJSS + Gallup + D Parker are not that bad, but FE did not prioritize this position during the draft by waiting until the 5^th round to pick their first WR and Thielen is already being overshadowed by Ju Jefferson.  Then FE did not draft another WR until the 14^th round, thankfully it was a good value pick Brandin Cooks who will see a lot of passes thrown his way no matter who the QB is. 

Best Pick: Lamar Jackson.  With K Murray taken in the middle of the second round, L Jackson one round later in the mid 3^rd was a solid pick.  Jackson has a new rookie WR and if his passing stats can improve he could return to being a top QB including franchise player status, having been franchised only 12 months ago. 

Worst Pick: Kyle Pitts.  It’s awfully hard for rookie TEs to compete with rookie QBs, RBs, and WRs so spending a second round pick was expensive.  One could argue that Pitts will be worth far more than QBs and WRs in 2022 and might even be cut whereas most rookie QBs and WRs fall in value, however if we focus exclusively on the 2021 season, the first rookie WR was taken in the 6^th round, much more modest cost than Pitts.  So even if Pitts performs like a WR he was still picked too early.  Pitts in the 2^nd round was mostly for his 2022 value not for 2021. 

BeaudoinBrothers

The BeaudoinBrothers will try to be the first team to win three straight seasons since 1997-2000 when the league only had 4, 5, and 6 teams so it was easier.  The last two repeat champs were Dec in 2003-2004 but in 2005 the Bros won in the most bone-crushing season ever by finishing first or second in a whopping 15 out of 17 weeks, a record which might never be broken.  Then in 2007-2008 the Bros were repeat champs but in 2009 Wax denied Beaud the title by the slimmest of margins due to the tie-breaker, both teams finishing with 106 rank-points.  In 2021 the Beaud decided to play to win now at the expense of the future with many draft picks with more value in 2021 than 2022.

Strength: TEs.  Another year, more of the same: Beaud’s TEs are Kelce and Goedert.  Unfortunately Zach Ertz is still in Philly so it will delay further the year when Goedert can project to be a top TE but since Beaud has Kelce one more time they can afford to wait with their luxury backup.

Weakness: LBs.  The Bros saved L David who is on the downside of his career and now has limited opportunities due to the great play of teammate D White, and also saved Isaiah Simmons who did next to nothing as a rookie last year.  The Bros intended to draft a LB early but when they were taken out like hot cakes the GM decided to hold off until the 9^th round and took Devin Bush who is one of the weakest LB1 in the PQBFL.  The 4^th LB on the Bros’ team is not expected to be of any help since he was taken dead last in the draft so hopes for a strong year from Logan Wilson are modest.

Best Pick: Zach Wilson.  While other teams were loading up on rookies with great prospects for 2022+ like Najee Harris and Kyle Pitts, the Bros took the safest rookie pick for 2021 (besides franchise player T Lawrence) since the Jets have nobody else worth starting at QB unlike other rookie QBs who have competition. 

Worst Pick: Chris Carson.  The Bros were afraid no worthy RB would be available at the end of the 4^th round so they used one of their back-to-back picks at the end of the 2^nd and beginning of 3^rd for Carson.  Not only it turned out to be the wrong assumption because there were plenty of decent available RBs at the end of the 4^th round, in addition Carson is often injured and has significant wear and tear already so he was not worth a second round pick.

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