Analysis of the 2020 PQBFL Draft

The Ballers now enter year 3 of the franchise; the team had a good start in 2018 but unfortunately regressed in 2019 in large part due to many injuries.  Unfortunately the team entered the draft this year with a less than stellar group of saved players, but having the first pick overall helped the Ballers put together a lineup which is not far from other teams according to preseason projections so the team has a chance to compete. 

Strength: QB.  Dak Prescott has excellent offensive weapons and a top RB to keep defenses honest so Prescott is in line for a career year.  The Ballers also have three veterans to fill in should Prescott get injured. 

Weakness: backup WRs.  Behind D Hopkins, it’s not even clear who will be the starting WR2, perhaps AJ Green or P Williams but there are questions about their health, or Edelman but he’s over the hill. 

Best Pick: Zach Moss.  If D Singletary is the man in Buffalo, why would the Bills draft a rookie RB in the third round?  Singletary has fumble problems and could be benched at any time, which means Moss could become starter in an ascending offense, not to mention his potential value in 2021.

Worst Pick: Gronkowski.  Ball had already drafted Ertz in the third round, and in the 8^th round the team had many other holes to fill rather than gamble on an aging broken TE on the promise of return to better days.

WaxOnWaxOff managed to have an above average season in 2019 despite lots of injuries, almost as many as the Ballers.  Those injuries had an impact on Wax’s 2020 saved team, in addition CJ Mosley opted out of the season which affected Wax on defense where the team was already thin, forcing the team to make two pre-draft trades to bolster their squad but it came at a cost of draft picks swaps.  The one trade that worked way beyond expectations last year was acquiring L Jackson who is now franchise player, at the modest cost of players at secondary positions like TE, defense, DB, and K.

Strength: Rookies.  Not only Wax could land Burrow who is arguably the best rookie for 2020, but they also complemented him with stable rookie scoring on defense from a LB, plus the top rated rookie DL who will have value next year.

Weakness: TEs.  N Fant, Jo Smith, and B Jarwin would not be starters on any other PQBFL team, and would not even be TE2 on most teams either. 

Best Pick: Aaron Donald.  A perennial top DL, Donald was cut from Wax’s team and he was there for the taking by Wax as late as the 7^th round after already 6 LBs were drafted. 

Worst Pick: Fred Warner.  After an early wave of LBs taken, Wax took an unproven LB in the 8^th round who was playing in a decimated LB corps for the 49ers last year and the situation might not be the same this year, reducing opportunities.  After Warner was taken, only 4 LBs were drafted in the subsequent 72 picks and it’s not like there was a drop off after Warner meaning he most likely would have been available much later. 

The BeaudoinBrothers won by a hair in dramatic fashion in week #17 last year and will try to repeat as champions in 2020, something that has not been done by any PQBFL team since 2007-2008 when the Bros were back to back champs, so it’s been more than a decade since we have seen repeat champs due to high competition in the league.  Consequently, odds are not in favor of the Bros this year and projections are also not putting the team on top. 

Strength: backup RBs.  Who will be the RB2 after franchise player D Henry?  D Johnson and T Gurley might go back to previous high level of performance on their new team, but if not, the stable and boring Mostert will provide a high floor of scoring better than any other RB4 in the PQBFL.  Similar thing for James White who will be Cam Newton’s main receiving option with weak receivers in New England. 

Weakness: Rookie.  The Bros missed out on all the top names and made CeeDee Lamb their first drafted rookie but he’s only WR3 in Dallas.  Beaud at least drafted a rookie LB to guarantee some points on a weekly basis but I Simmons was not even the top ranked rookie LB: it is rather P Queen (Dec).

Best Pick: T Kelce.  When Kelce was not drafted in the first round (unlike last year), he was immediate value in the second round.  He went only a few picks ahead of Kittle, Andrews, and Ertz, while being the clear #1 of the bunch.

Worst Pick: M Gallup.  Why draft this WR given that the Bros already had A Cooper and CeeDee Lamb?  The team ends up in the perverse situation of having to hope for an injury to one of them for the other two to emerge.

The Decepticons bring into 2020 a very solid saved team and even had players to spare especially on defense and were able to further boost their draft capital via trades.  This is on top of possibly the most valuable franchise player Mahomes who is looking to rebound after having a few nagging injuries last year. 

Strength: Defense.  Dec saved two of the top 5 DBs J Adams and L Collins, also saved a top 10 young LB D Bush and DL N Bosa, and on top of that drafted the best LB D Leonard.  As if it was not enough, Dec drafted the highest ranked defense the 49ers.  This defensive squad has no holes whatsoever. 

Weakness: RBs.  Similar to Beaud, having Chubb + K Hunt means Dec might have to hope for an injury to extract elite value, C Carson’s health is in question and people wonder if the Seahawks will start to throw the ball more, Montgomery did not look like an NFL RB last year, and Duke Johnson is an eternal backup.

Best Pick: Ju Jones.  In many PQBFL drafts, the third or fourth best WR is taken in the first round or second round at the latest, but Jones fell to the third round which was great value for Dec

Worst Pick: college players J Newman and N Harris.  Dec is a team built to win now but they wasted two roster spots on guys who will not score at all in 2020 in a season with potential for decimated rosters with less offseason preparation and most likely games missed due to covid.

OldNo7 is projected to finish in the top 3 for the first time in team history.  Franchise player McCaffrey is the best RB by far and anchors this team, but in addition Old had a solid draft by taking top players at secondary positions while everybody else went nuts with RBs early in the draft. 

Strength: WRs.  Ty Hill leads the group as a clear elite player, A Robinson will continue to have lots of receptions regardless who is the QB, and K Allen + AJ Brown are the best WR3-4 tandem in the PQBFL according to projections. 

Weakness: Backup RBs. Old saved K Johnson, S Michel, and T Coleman, but will one of them perform?  That is very questionable, which puts a lot of pressure on M Gordon to do well as a starter and not get injured.

Best Pick: A Rodgers.  Heck, this guy was cut from FE’s team so he should have been coveted in the draft, no?  How could he fall to the 8^th round then?  A perfect fit for Old because starter Wentz is no sure thing so backup Rodgers could soon go back to starter status.

Worst Pick: T Higbee.  This TE does not have a long history of performance to feel confident that his late season 2019 stats can be repeated, especially since his high level of performance was while Everett was injured.

FlyingElvis almost won the 2019 crown in week #17 on SNF when they needed 17.75 pts from LB Wagner but fell short, and in a crazy close finish, actually ended up not 2^nd, not 3^rd, but 4^th place overall after missing out at the top.  FE’s saved team is ok but not great and preseason projections indicate a subpar season for FE.  Things are already starting on the wrong foot with an injury to DB D James and Fournette who was waived by the Jaguars.

Strength: RBs.  Well, it was a strength at least until Fournette was waived but he could find a good home in the next few days.  S Barkley is the second best RB on almost everybody’s list, Miles Sanders does not have Jo Howard around anymore, and in a year where RBs were such a hot commodity, Fournette and Singletary were actually quite valuable saved players.

Weakness: backup DBs.  Karl Joseph was saved out of necessity, otherwise he was not going to be drafted, and J Peppers is a gadget player who is unlikely to crack the top ten DBs.  That lacked of depth might have been fine with a healthy DB Derwin James but his injury hurts FE at the position of worst weakness which is unfortunate.

Best Pick: Tremaine Edmunds.  A young LB leading a top defense has high value but he slipped to the 11^th round until FE gobbled him up.  Given that saved LBs for FE were not very good (Hitchens, Kendricks), Edmunds becomes an every week starter for a bargain price. 

Worst Pick: Daniel Jones.  The potential is there no doubt, but as it turns out the QBs were out of fashion during the draft so using a 5^th round pick for Jones was questionable given who was drafted later for cheaper, for example Stafford and A Rodgers in the 8^th round.

The GloriousBastards had their best season in 2019, finishing second and almost winning the league after a hot streak of 4 straight wins from week 13 to 16, let alone winning week 11 as well and finishing 3^rd in the final week.  Bas starts 2020 with an average group of saved players including franchise player E Elliott who has yet to put together a league crushing season like guys such as L Jackson, P Mahomes, and C McCaffrey have done before. 

Strength: Rookies.  Justin Herbert was a well-timed lottery ticket given that we can never trust Tyrod Taylor to play an entire season.  Until Herbert starts, Cam Akers is already the starter for the Rams and JK Dobbins will push Ingram sooner rather than later in Baltimore. 

Weakness: Backup RBs.  This one is a no brainer.  After E Elliott and Jo Jacobs, the best projection is for Latavius Murray who does not even have the slightest chance to start other than with an injury to Kamara.  Others such as C Edmonds, T Pollard, and D Henderson also only have value with an injury, but at least for T Pollard it’s protection should Elliott go down. 

Best Pick: DK Metcalf.  Huge potential, well performing rookie last year especially late in the season, not so much WR competition, and a top QB.  What else is needed for a potential top 10 WR to emerge?

Worst Pick:  Tyler Boyd.  He should not have been drafted ahead of AJ Green and he was not cheap in the 7^th round.  Many similar uncertain WRs were drafted much later. 

The Admirals have been the most consistently average team in the PQBFL from 2017-2019, never finishing low in the standings, but never having success at the top either.  Adm will be hampered in 2020 by being the only team not to franchise a QB or a RB, and in addition D Adams is not even the top WR in the league. 

Strength: DLs.  D Hunter is the projected best DL in the PQBFL and backup Joey Bosa would be a starter on almost all other PQBFL teams. 

Weakness: Backup RBs and WRs.  Adm will be stretched thin during bye weeks: Lindsay, Hyde, and D Harris are all backups on their NFL team, at WR it’s not much better with Kirk, Jo Brown, Ro Anderson, and N Harry who are all WR2 if not WR3 on their NFL team. 

Best Pick: Adam Thielen.  The Vikings’ new offensive coordinator will stop the ridiculous “run first, second, and third” type of offense, Diggs is gone, and Thielen is now healthy.  That sounds like a big improvement from last year.

Worst Pick: K Vaughn.  Coach Arians has never trusted a rookie RB to lead the charge so this has potential to be a wasted pick, at least for 2020.

ProfessorMJ joins the PQBFL as an expansion team and will endure a rough season but the important thing is the future outlook.  Several picks were designed to give potential for next year particularly by drafting three college players for their 2021 value, and avoiding rookie QBs such as Burrow who are great for 2020 but not so much for next year. 

Strength: RBs.  The first three picks of Prof were all RBs so it should not come as a surprise that as a block of 3 RBs,while Drake+Conner+Ekeler might not have a top 10 among them, but they are overall solid whereas most other PQBFL teams do not have a RB3 which is as strong.

Weakness: QBs.  Josh Allen is not proven yet but the main issue are the backups, D Carr and S Darnold are quite weak and Carr does not have much long-term value either, unlike Darnold who at least has potential.

Best Pick: Terry McLaurin.  A young WR who did well last year regardless of what awful QB was throwing the rock, good potential scoring not only for 2020 but excellent value in the future as well.  Arrow is pointing up.

Worst Pick: Trevor Lawrence.  Being the only expansion team, there was probably not a huge demand from other teams to burn an early pick on Lawrence.  Tua Tago was drafted 41^st overall last year so spending the 37^th overall on Lawrence was too early given that last year at least college players were scoring points rather than be sidelined this year.  Justin Fields was taken 82^nd overall (Bas) which sounds more reasonable than Lawrence.  Taking a college player in the 4^th round leaves very little room for improving a saved team.

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