Analysis of the 2008 PQBFL Draft

 

JakesBlues

The JakesBlues join the PQBFL as the first expansion team since 2005.  Historically expansion teams have struggled in their first year in the PQBFL.  If we only consider true expansion teams (not teams that rejoined the league after a period out – Dug and Dec), it does not look pretty.  FE finished last in 2005, Spi finished last in 2003, Dec finished last in 2002, and Old finished last in 2000.  The only expansion teams that had decent success were UJ (2001) and Wax/Dug (2000).  Therefore it is widely expected that JB will be in the bottom half of the standings this season.  However all is not lost because expansion teams have also done quite well in following seasons.  After finishing last in 2005, FE finished third in 2006 and 2007.  After finishing last in 2003, Spi moved up to third in 2004, second in 2005, and then won the league in 2006.  UJ, Wax, and Dec had even quicker success, winning the league in their second season.  Dec also won the league in the team’s third season.  The only team did not have much success after the expansion year was OldNo7 who also finished last in the team’s second year.  That’s not to say that Old did not improve from 2000 to 2001 however.  Old had by far the shittiest season ever in 2000 and then was only 3 rank-points away from the middle of the standings in 2001. 

JB had an overall good draft for an expansion team.  At WR, after staple C Johnson, JB went with S Moss who had a bad year in 2007.  S Moss could very well rebound if his injury issues are behind him.  He certainly has the potential to do it.  A Gates at TE was a great choice for an expansion team.  Gates’ price was at a discount during the draft due to concerns about his toe injury, but he seems fine in camp.  At the rookie position, JB snatched Felix Jones away from the Dugongs in the 5th round.  When it’s all said and done, F Jones might be the best rookie RB in the 2007 class.  He played in the shadow of D-Mac in Arkansas but his playing style might be better suited to the NFL than other rookie RBs like K Smith, Mendenhall, etc.   

JB seemed to struggle a little more on the defensive side than on offense.  Except for J Allen, T Suggs, and L Tatupu, JB might have overpaid for the rest of their defensive squad.

Team Strength: QB.  Brees is an elite starter, and the backup QBs are a good duo of youth/potential (J Campbell) and a reliable veteran (J Garcia). 

Team Weakness: Depth.  As any expansion team, it is difficult to draft a team with depth at many positions. 

Best Pick: J Addai.  JB needed a future franchise player so they elected to draft first and took the best long-term RB available. 

Worst Pick: E James.  Make no mistake, E James will do quite well in 2008, but as an expansion team one has to wonder why JB picked a RB who is already 30 years old. 

 

Dugongs

The Dugongs came into the draft as the 2008 favorites due to having the best franchise player in the league (A Peterson) and a very strong saved team, thanks to an offseason trade with Wax which landed Dug the prized rookie D McFadden on the saved team and Favre going to the Jets helping saved player L Coles. 

Unfortunately the Dugongs’ draft was rated worst in the league by external observers (relative to expectations) and Dug saw the steepest deterioration in Vegas odds of all teams after the draft.  Dug went from league favorites to third, barely in front of Wax breathing down Dug’s neck. 

The main shocker of the draft was the Dugongs spending spree on rookie RBs.  As if having D-Mac was not enough, the Dugongs spent their 4th, 5th, and 6th round picks on rookie RBs.    And if JB did not get Felix Jones in the 5th round, Dug would have probably drafted him too with the 7th round pick!  Dug’s intent was to use rookie RBs as trade bait but it only had limited success.  Dug was only able to get Lee Evans from Wax in return for the weakest of Dug’s 4 rookie RBs (Chris Johnson).   At the time C Johnson was drafted, an equivalent WR was available – Roddy White – so it’s not clear what the benefit of drafting another rookie was.  And if WR was such a concern to Dug, then instead of taking Kevin Smith and Matt Forte in the 4th and 5th rounds, there were other very high quality WRs drafted during those two rounds (Steve Smith, B Marshall, S Holmes, T Holt, C Johnson, A Boldin).  If the Dugongs can get one of those WRs in return for K Smith before the beginning of the season or early into the season, then great for them.  But so far nobody has been willing to part ways with those WRs so far, in return for a rookie RB who is not very talented in the first place and has a bad offensive line.  K Smith only benefits from a decent situation by having little or no competition for carries at the moment.  Forte’s situation is even worse due to the surprisingly fast return to health of Kevin Jones.   

Team Strength: How can it not be the rookie position.  But is it going to be wasted on the bench?

Team Weakness: QB.  No team has a weaker starter than M Hasselbeck, who does not have any healthy weapons at WR anymore.  The backup is unproven (A Rodgers) and Dug only drafted 3 QBs instead of 4-5 with old man Kitna being the last one.  It would not be surprising to see Kitna end up Dug’s starter soon, which would not be very impressive. 

Best Pick: TJ Housh.  He seems underrated almost every year and yet he is a top producer every year.  TJ was a top 5 WR last year but was the 9th WR taken during the draft.  Not much has changed since last year to justify this drop.  CJ’s shoulder issues only add to TJ’s value. 

Worst Pick: Rookie Kevin Smith due to the quality of WRs available at that time.

 

FlyingElvis

FlyingElvis is the other team along with Dug that saw the worst deterioration of Vegas odds after the draft.  The gallery was not impressed by the selection of MB3 as the 4th player taken overall.  Rookie RB Felix Jones is possibly a greater threat to MB3 than Ju Jones was in the past.  How can MB3 produce at such a high level if Felix Jones cannot stay off the field by convincing coaches of his playmaking abilities? 

The team’s second RB is W McGahee.  Another shaky pick due to uncertainties with his knee and the possible threat of rookie Ray Rice, not even mentioning the offensive line of the Ravens which is in shambles and the poor QB play.  FE seems to love RBs threatened to lose carries to rookies, because FE took L White to be RB3 (Chris Johnson could steal carries).  Oh and FE’s RB4 is DeAngelo Williams – hello Jonathan Stewart.  Who’s RB5 for FE?  Chris Brown.  Rookie Slaton is in town and Ahman Green is not dead yet. 

FE also hurt his team’s chances by drafting head case B Marshall.  Already suspended for two-three games, Marshall is in danger of a longer suspension if he does not improve his behavior.  Marshall would have been better suited for a team in rebuilding mode who does not mind not having Marshall available at the beginning of the season.  However for FE, his absence will be painful because the team’s WR3 is Kevin Curtis who will be out due to an injury at the beginning of the season.   Marshall+Curtis is a bad combination right now. 

FE elected to only carry 3 QBs on the roster.  FE better pray that Brady is fine because after him it looks bad.  Leinart already lost his starting job to Warner, and JT O’Sullivan has not shown anything in the league yet and could be on a very short leash.  With Brady missing preseason games, the QB squad is quite uncomfortable for FE.  If Brady was to miss extended time during the regular season, the sky will fall on FE’s head. 

Team Strength: Brady.  All FE’s hopes rest of him. 

Team Weakness: RB.  It’s a very important position and FE’s players are under threat to lose playing time. 

Best Pick: Matt Ryan.  With all the attention diverted to rookie RBs, FE might have landed the best rookie available at a cheap cost – 7th round pick.  Ryan has a decent supporting cast with Roddy White and M Turner.  If he keeps his INT total low, he could outscore most rookie RBs. 

Worst Pick: B Marshall.

 

Spitoons

The Spitoons went from league champions in 2006 to dead last in 2007, the first time this ever happened in the PQBFL.  Spi finished last 7 weeks out of 17 and in the bottom two for 10 weeks out of 17.  Ouch!  The Spitoons are in rebuilding mode this year after having a pretty weak saved team coming into 2008. 

The Spitoons made two trades to improve their saved team and part of one  deal included Kevin Jones.  He might not be fully healthy at the beginning of this year, but his prospects for 2009 are very good, which his what a rebuilding team needs.  Steve Smith was drafted at a discount due to his 2-game suspension.  Smith might pay big dividends starting in week #3 and his 2009 value is not in doubt.  P Rivers was a good pick for the future too. 

However Spi made some head-scratching picks which will not help the future at all.  M Harrison, J Galloway, and B Engram are all old and will be worth less in 2009 than in 2008.  Rebuilding teams need rookie RBs, not rookie LBs.  Keith Rivers is probably one of the top 2 rookie LBs this season, but unless he has a stellar season like D Ryans (2006) and P Willis (2007), he might not be worth much next year.   

Team Strength: QB.  Romo is a top 3 QB, Rivers is young and improving, and Warner is the starting QB in Arizona, unlike what most thought would happen.

Team Weakness: TE.  Heath Miller is probably the worst starting TE in the PQBFL. 

Best Pick: Steve Smith.  He was a bargain in the 4th round, suspension or not.  Delhomme is back. 

Worst Picks: Too many old WRs. 

 

BeaudoinBrothers

The BeaudoinBrothers took over the Dugongs as league favorites through offseason trades and safe picks throughout the draft.  The first big surprise was M Lynch not being cut from Beaud’s team, which left Wax and Dec both puzzled as they were the only two teams who thought Lynch was a top 5 cut.  Keeping Lynch was even better than the BBs anticipated.  With the 7th pick overall, the BBs had intended to draft a WR because they were already set at RB.  However Portis was too good to let go.  The BBs were able to ship Lynch to Wax who needed a potential franchise RB in return for R Moss who is better than R Wayne who the BBs would have taken otherwise. 

The BBs then took L Fitzgerald in the 2nd round to go along with R Moss.  The announcement that K Warner is the starting QB in Arizona only improves his prospects.  After trading away W Parker before the draft, the BBs had the luxury of having an extra pick in the third round and they took back J Witten who was lost as a cut player.  The BeaudoinBrothers therefore end up with the top RB (LT), the top WR (R Moss), and a top three TE (Witten).  Gates might have been the better pick here but the BBs went the safe route due to Gates’ injury issue. 

The BBs are playing to win now because LT’s days as a top franchise player are numbered.  Despite that, the BBs were able to land a few players who might not be very useful in 2008, but could help the 2009 saved team.  Ronnie Brown is the best example as he is still recovering from his knee injury.  College RBs K Moreno and L McCoy could be quite valuable next year too, depending on where they end up.  Maybe the Dugongs could be a great trade partner during the next offseason for those future rookie RBs. 

Team Strength: WR.  R Moss and L Fitz is the top WR duo in the league, in front of A Johnson / R Wayne for Dec.  And the BBs WR3 Torry Holt could start on half of PQBFL teams. 

Team Weakness: Last year, the BBs had injury protection for LT with M Turner.  This year, if LT goes down, the BBs will be thin at RB.  Portis and M Turner will be there, but Ronnie Brown might not be a starter this season so the BBs will have nobody else. 

Best Pick: C Portis.  Another player who is underrated frequently.  He finished 7th RB last year, the Skins offensive line is very improved from last year, but yet he was the 10th RB off the board if we include franchise players. 

Worst Pick: J Mayo.  The BBs panicked when the Dugongs took several rookies and they wanted the best rookie LB available.  Since the second best rookie LB K Rivers (Spi) was taken 31 picks later, it’s a sign the BBs overpaid for Mayo. 

 

WaxOnWaxOff

WaxOnWaxOff got the strongest improvement in Vegas odds after the draft.  Wax was the most active team with trades before and during the draft which helped the team.  Wax’s situation at RB looked horrible at first.  However Wax took MJD in the first round, traded for W Parker before the draft, and got M Lynch in return for R Moss during the first round.  This meant Wax got a downgrade at WR by having to settle on T Owens in the 2nd round, but the downgrade at WR from Moss to Owens was far less than the upgrade at RB based on who would have been available in the middle of the 2nd round at RB for Wax.  The fact that 9 consecutive WRs were taken in the 2nd-3rd round confirms that there was a significant drop off in talent level at RB and Wax avoided falling there. 

Wax also got Spi’s 7th round pick by trading away Ju Jones before the draft.  Wax used the pick to take DL Mario Williams.  This helped Wax assemble the best defense in the PQBFL: Vikings, M Williams, P Willis, R Lewis, and Adrian Wilson.  

Wax was one of the last team to draft a QB.  However the team ends up with a decent combination with the underrated Garrard and Delhomme in front of Bulger. 

Team Strength: Defense.  Wax has the top defensive team, the top LB, the top DB, and the second best DL. 

Team Weakness: WR depth.  After Owens and S Holmes, Wax has a few question marks with G Jennings (will he perform well with A Rodgers?), Burleson, and S Rice who is still quite young. 

Best Pick: Tony Gonzalez.  There were 4 top TEs available in the draft and Wax got the last of them in the middle of the 5th round.  There would have been a big drop off in talent available after Gonzo. 

Worst Pick: C Pennington.  This is almost a waste of roster spot.  Wax could have gone with a QB with more upside like K Orton, T Jackson, or a stable veteran who will do the job like J Garcia. 

 

OldNo7

As in the past, Old's team will be heavily represented by homer picks from the KC Chiefs.  Old saved Derrick Johnson and Dwayne Bowe, then drafted LJ, B Croyle, and B Pollard.  The danger with this strategy is that the Chiefs are not very good anymore.  Fortunately, the beginning of Old's draft was very solid.  B Edwards is back with Old, being drafted in the second round.  He was the best logical WR available at that time.  Then Old took a bit of a gamble with D Anderson at the QB position.  Anderson had a very surprising season in 2007, but he slowed down towards the end of the year and it is unclear if this will carry into 2008.  Because Old is set at RB with franchise player S-Jax and first round pick LJ, Old could afford taking chances on uncertain RBs.  S Young has potential for a great year like any starting Broncos RB but he has not proven anything yet.  Then Old drafted Chris Perry, back from the dead after so many injury plagued seasons.  Perry finally has his chance to start due to the struggles of Rudi Johnson.  And finally, Old took Cadillac at a rock bottom price in the 20th round.  This is a great pick to help Old's 2009 season.   

On defense, Old should hold its ground against the opposition.  The Bears D is typically very strong, although Old hopes they bounce back from their 2007 season which was slightly below par.  LB Posluszny was the 4th LB taken in the draft, which surprised some team owners.  They seem to forget that Poz is a very talented LB in the middle of a defense that historically produced big numbers for the MLB.  Poz's injury last year is not the type of injury that would prevent him from performing well in 2008 like if it had been a knee problem for example.  At DL, Old has two of the top DLs in the league with T Cole and Ju Peppers.  For a few years Peppers has been playing below expectations but because he's in a contract year, 2008 might be the year where he finally explodes.  He was playing with the mono last year so he had a good excuse.  He's healthy now.

Team Strength: Overall team balance.  Old filled needs one by one in priority order without overloading any position, resulting in having a roster with almost no major hole and no position without depth. 

Team Weakness: Rookie.  None of Old's three rookies are established starters yet. 

Best Pick: A Boldin.  Boldin is worth a lot more than what Old paid for: only a 5th round pick. 

Worst Pick: N Folk.  Anybody who has the shame of taking a kicker first in a draft should be embarrassed

 

UncleJack

UJ has not won a PQBFL title since 2002 but 2007 was the team's best year since then.  UJ finished 5th, just a little after Dec and barely missed finishing in the top half of the standings.  UJ ended the season very strong with four second places or better in the last five weeks of the season and was the hottest team in the league during that 5-week span.  UJ hopes to carry that momentum into 2008. 

RB has often been a position of weakness for UJ and the team intended to fix this situation.  UJ used the team's first two picks on RBs: E Graham and J Lewis.  Both are not flashy but can get the job done.  The concern here is whether E Graham will continue to have a huge share of carries for the Bucs.  W Dunn joined the team during the offseason and coach Gruden loves him.  UJ took its starting WRs in the 3rd and 4th rounds and got two top WRs at relatively cheap price.  P Burress is still bothered by an ankle injury but he always seem to produce anyway.  Second year Calvin Johnson is one of the most talented WRs in the league and nobody knows what his ceiling is yet. 

UJ drafted rookie Mendenhall from the Steelers in the 6th round after the Dugongs had already raided this area.  Mendenhall has nice long-term potential, but it is unclear at this point how much Mendenhall will see the field in 2008.  He might get goal line carries instead of W Parker, but since Parker is healthy one has to wonder why Mendenhall would get many carries between the 20s. 

Team Strength: Team defense.  The Chargers and Steelers are the top defensive duo in the PQBFL. 

Team Weakness: RB.  E Graham / J Lewis is the weakest starting RB duo of the league and a pot smoker is the backup.

Best Pick: Calvin Johnson.  He was a bargain at the end of the 4th round and he could possibly upstage R Williams as the top receiver of the Lions at this early stage of his career. 

Worst Pick: Ricky Williams.  The writer of this column cannot trust this guy in any way, shape, or form.

 

Decepticons

When the Decepticons rejoined the league in 2006, their goal was to build a team that would be competitive in 2008.  Dec finished 4th in 2006-2007 and the team is now set to compete for the top.  Drafts filled with youth and trades to improve Dec's saved team make Dec a strong contender with saved players like J Cotchery, B Jacobs, J Cutler, T Jones, and Cooley.  Even the saved defensive players are very strong - Dec has the best saved duo of IDP in the league with Kampman and Beason.  The only problem for Dec is that the team's franchise player is weaker than other teams.  Andre Johnson is good, but he's not top 9 in the league. 

The 'Cons followed up with a solid draft and jumped in front of Dug in the Vegas odds to win in 2008.  The only mistake made by Dec might have been where the team elected to draft: the 8th spot.  If Dec had taken the 7th spot, they would have gotten Portis in the first round.  Maybe Dec did not expect Beaud to take a RB in the first round, but it happened and there was a significant drop off from Portis to Ryan Grant, which Dec decided to go with in the first round.  Grant is a bit of an unknown this season with the departure of Favre and having had success only in about half a season.  Starting in the 2nd round, things went really well for Dec.  They took the first WR in the draft with R Wayne in the 2nd round and started a big WR run with 9 of the next 10 picks being WRs.  The WR frenzy allowed Dec to take the best available rookie in the draft (since D-Mac was saved by Dug) with J Stewart in the 3rd round.  In the 4th round, Dec took the last of the top tier QBs with McNabb.  Then in the 5th round, Dec got a bargain by getting Winslow Jr which might be as good as Witten and Gates this year but Dec paid a much lower price for him. 

Dec's team is strong all around, even at the college position, Dec has D LeFevour, one of the top 3 college QBs available, and M Crabtree the sophomore WR from Texas Tech who is a lock to be an NFL first round pick, and quite possibly first pick overall if the NFL team with the #1 pick happens to have a need at the WR position.  Crabtree will be an absolute monster this year and has a great NFL career ahead of him. 

Team Strength: WRs.  As if franchise player Andre Johnson and the first WR drafted R Wayne were not enough, saved player J Cotchery and 6th round pick R White made this quartet of WRs extremely strong. 

Team Weakness: DBs.  R Harper and M Lewis is a decent duo, but this position is probably the only one where Dec does not have an elite starter.  

Best Pick: K Winslow Jr.  Winslow has a good chance of being the top TE this year.  Spending a fifth round pick for him was a steal. 

Worst Pick: D LeFevour.  LeFevour is a top 3 college player, but T Tebow should have been the pick here. 

 

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