Analysis of the 2006 PQBFL Draft

 

 

Dugongs

The Dugongs return to the league after an up and down expansion year in 2005.  The Dugongs managed to finish 4th despite being the second most injury-hit team in the league and despite the disadvantage of being an expansion team.  This team was pretty bad from top to bottom in 2005 and it is a miracle that the coach was able to bring the best out of a bunch of mediocre players and finish in the middle of the standings (best coaching efficiency in 2005).  The horrible draft in 2005 resulted in a very weak saved team in 2006.  In fact, the Dugongs’ saved team is the worst or second worst of the PQBFL.  So the Dugongs have quite a bit to surmount to field a competitive team in 2006. 

The Dugongs seem to have done better in the 2006 draft.  None of their picks made the gallery laugh.  Most were pretty solid picks.  Sitting at #1, the Dugongs elected to go with Ronnie Brown.  The Dolphins RB was probably the most logical choice but he is risky nonetheless.  R Brown has never been a starting RB in the NFL or even in college where he shared with Cadillac at Auburn.  Larry Fitz will be a top WR and was a solid pick in the 2nd round.  Todd Heap will be the Dugongs starting TE and Heap should see a stat boost due to the arrival of McNair in Baltimore.  Rookie Mike Bell was selected as the first pick in the third round and second rookie R Bush.  M Bell will have to perform at a very high level because the first pick of the 3rd round with a high price to pay to get him and it is not even sure at this point whether he will be the starter for the Broncos or not.  The Panthers D should also be a strength for the Dugongs. 

The Dugongs do have some glaring weaknesses however.  On defense, Adrian Wilson is without any doubt the cream of the crop at DB (saved player), but the Dugongs did not draft a single defensive player in the top 100.  They waited until the 14th round to call a defensive player.  If the Dugongs expect Vrabel to be the starting LB, they might be disappointed.  The Dugongs GM claims that the Pats will use a 6-1-4 defense with Vrabel being in the middle of it.  If those reports are true, Vrabel might be a nice pick, but this situation is far from certain because Bruschi might be the one playing in the middle when he is back to health.  The other two LBs for the Dugongs are K Mitchell and G Brackett.  They can do the job, but they are not top starters. 

The other big weakness for the Dugongs is the QB position.  After saving K Warner, the Dugongs picked A Brooks and D Carr with the 103rd and 104th overall picks.  It is disturbing that the Raiders signed Jeff George.  Will A Brooks start all year?  New coach Art Shell does not seem to like him.  K Warner is injury-prone.  D Carr is absolutely putrid.  If things go bad, the Dugongs will have to rely on Charlie Frye at QB.  Ouch. 

Team Strength: Depth at RB.  The Dugongs have one of the best (if not the best) duo of backup RBs with Ju Jones and F Gore. 

Team Weakness: QB.  This position is important in the PQBFL and the Dugongs forgot about it until 100 players were taken. 

Best Pick: Adrian Peterson.   The Dugongs are underdogs to win in 2006 so they picked who might be the 2007 equivalent of Reggie Bush in the 17th round.  Nice.  He will improve the Dugongs saved team. 

Worst Pick: Chad Jackson.  There was no glaring “bad pick” in the Dugongs’ draft so this one is hard to judge, but we have to go with Chad Jackson.  The Dugongs are mainly hoping for D Branch not to sign with the Pats, for Caldwell to struggle, and for C Jackson to catch a large number of balls from Brady who is already someone who spreads it around.  Chad Jackson is probably not a bad player, but a 10th round pick was a high price to pay especially with M Bell already being the starter for the Dugongs. 

 

UncleJack

UncleJack is carrying a relatively weak saved team into 2006 due to a 6th place finish last year.  However the draft this year started pretty well for UJ.  For the first time in the history of the franchise, UJ picked two RBs to start a draft.  LaMont Jordan provides immediate stability in the backfield.  In the second round, UJ picked W Parker who could possibly perform like a first rounder especially if he gets the goal line carries for the Steelers.  However, after the two starting RBs, UJ probably has the thinnest squad of backups ever.  Greg Jones hurt his knee a few hours after the end of the PQBFL draft and he is out for the year.  Mike Anderson is not having a good camp and Musa Smith is on the verge of taking the backup job of Jamal Lewis in Baltimore so M Anderson could become third string RB.  Finally, Antowain Smith is already third string RB in Houston.  So there is absolutely no depth at RB.  Zero.  Zilch.  This is a very scary situation for UJ.

At QB, franchise player P Manning is without any doubt the best in the league by far.  The Dugongs tried to trade E James for P Manning early in the draft and UJ politely refused, which was the sane thing to do.  One cannot trade P Manning for a RB who might have trouble finding running room this year.  P Manning will probably start 16 times for UJ this year.  He is so great that he can start no matter what the matchup is, and he is never injured. 

At WR, UncleJack has a clear WR1 with A Boldin.  Boldin was UJ's third round draft pick and he is a safe player who will not disappoint.  At TE Tony Gonzalez is a veteran who should perform, although his 2005 performance raises some questions about whether he can return to his old form in 2006.  LB should be a strength for UJ.  N Barnett was saved, and UJ spent a 4th round pick on London Fletcher.  The only bad move for UJ was not to acquire Fletcher from the BeaudoinBrothers before the saved players were announced.  Fletcher would have cost much less than a 4th round pick.  I guess UJ's wedding prevented the GM to fully prepare for the draft before the saved players, and it had consequences .

Other than depth at RB, the other main problem for UJ this year might be the rookie position.  This has never been a strong position for UJ and 2006 is no exception.  The starter will be Jerious Norwood.  He has had an impressive preseason, but he remains backup behind W Dunn.  Griffith might even get the goal line carries in Atlanta.  The backup rookies are Tony Sheffler, who is just a long-shot TE, and Demetrius Williams who will probably not start at WR for the Ravens. 

Team Strength: P Manning.  He might outscore all QBs in the league by a big margin and has no injury issues unlike some other top QBs. 

Team Weakness: RB Depth.  An injury to Jordan or Parker will be a catastrophe. 

Best Pick: W Parker .  Parker slipped to the 2nd round because he is underrated and other owners might understate the impact of Bettis' departure.  Staley and Haynes might not become the goal line RBs and Parker might stay on the field inside the 10 yard line.

Worst Pick: T Suggs .  Make no mistake, Suggs is definitely a top 10 DL, but he was taken way too early in the 6th round.  Suggs could have been available two rounds later and UJ could have used the pick on a decent backup RB.

 

Spitoons

The Spitoons had a nice year in 2005 and are bringing over one of the best saved teams into 2006.  Not only S Alexander is a top notch franchise player, but the Spitoons were able to save B Westbrook and Roy Williams (WR).  In addition, the Spitoons GM got out of jail in the last few months (exam jail) and had more time to prepare for the PQBFL draft in 2006 than in 2005, so hopes were running high for the Spitoons during the offseason. 

The draft started well for the team with the selection of reliable Marvin Harrison.  He is getting old, but the Spitoons are set up to win right away, so the fact that M Harrison might have a lower saved value in 2007 is not a problem for teams who are contenders this year compared to teams who need to build for the future.  The Spitoons also rolled the dice on T Owens in the 3rd round.  If T Owens resolves his problems, the Spitoons could be the most powerful team at the WR position.  The backups are also very strong, with Roy Williams, Santana Moss, and Joey Galloway. 

The Spitoons are also in good shape at TE with Crumpler being on the saved team.  Same thing at DL: Jason Taylor was saved and he is arguably the best DL in the league.  The Spitoons drafted the other Roy Williams (DB) and drafted Michael Lewis.  They are all set at DB with a good starter and depth.  At QB, once again the Spitoons had very nice keepers with B Roethlisberger and Culpepper who seem to be fully healed from his devastating 2005 knee injury.  To top it off, the Spitoons got a great bargain by taking C Palmer in the 4th round.  He's another QB who seem back to his old form despite his knee injury.  Preseason reports on Palmer were all favorable.  Palmer was the 4th QB drafted so it's hard to be wrong with such a good deal. 

At the rookie position, the Spitoons got beat up by Odell Thurman from the BeaudoinBrothers.  To avoid a repeat situation, the Spitoons paid a high price to acquire A.J. Hawk who might have been the best LB available.  The Spitoons trashed talked the BeaudoinBrothers about their selection of Hawk.  We'll see how this works out.  Hawk has not been having the most impressive camp.  This might not have been the best move (too expensive) and the Spitoons might have overreacted due to 2005. 

Team Strength: WRs.  Possibly the best starters and even if T Owens bombs out, the depth is awesome. 

Team Weakness: RB depth.  After starters S Alexander and B Westbrook, none of the Spitoons' RBs are healthy (D Davis, Priest), young (Dillon), or drug-free (see Ricky Williams). 

Best Pick: C Palmer.  Not only he will be the team's starter in 2006, but his 2007 value is even higher because Palmer will show the knee is no longer an issue. 

Worst Pick: D Davis.  The Spitoons GM drafted D Davis in the 2nd round.  ARE YOU KIDDING ME?    This gotta be the worst pick of the entire draft by any team BY FAR.  The guy has a bad knee, there is no timetable for his return, he might not play for several weeks (or at all this season), and he's taken in the 2nd round!?!?  Awful awful awful.  This was a very costly mistake and it caused a big hole in the Spitoons lineup. 

 

WaxOnWaxOff

WaxOnWaxOff had an unspectacular but solid draft.  Wax brought over a solid saved team from 2005, but franchise player Rudi Johnson is like the rest of the team: he will do the job but will not be top of the league.  The first few picks by Wax offer some upside however.  Cadillac Williams was the first round pick and he has a chance to have a great season, but he is still a bit uncertain.  Randy Moss in the second round was a nice pick and could come back to his old form, but he is a little bit of a risk due to his QB. 

The first big chance that Wax took was Laurence Maroney in the third round.  Wax has one of the weakest franchise players, so the team tried to roll the dice on a potential franchise player.  After R Bush, Maroney might be the 2nd best long-term rookie option.  A third round pick was an expensive pick however, and might turn out to be a pick for the future, not for 2006.  And Wax got hit by bad news because Maroney got a knee injury after the PQBFL draft and his status is unknown for the beginning of the season. 

Wax's draft was set up to have the most balanced team as possible.  There is almost no weakness on this team.  Delhomme and E Manning at QB should be a nice duo and allow Wax to play the matchups.  At RB, Rudi and Cadillac are backed up by T Jones, McAllister, and D Rhodes.  All of those backups could end up being nice starting options.  At WR, after R Moss and P Burress, R Brown and N Burleson both have nice upside.  D Branch could have great value depending on where he ends up this season or if he ends his holdout.  The flip side of having few weaknesses is that Wax has the 3rd lowest strenght of starters. 

On defense, Wax has an interesting mix of youth and veteran players.  At LB, Ray Lewis and Zach Thomas should provide immediate benefits.  Wax's younger players on defense can start now and have good value next year, like T Polamalu, S Merriman, and M Boulware. 

Team Strength: Overall team balance.  Wax has decent starters and backups at every position. 

Team Weakness: TE.  Wax saved L.J. Smith but did not draft a TE until J Wiggins until the 15th round.  Almost all other teams in the PQBFL have a better starting TE. 

Best Pick: Cadillac Williams.   At worst Cadillac will be a top backup RB, at best he gives Wax a shot at a great franchise RB for years to come. 

Worst Pick: Josh Brown.   Not many bad picks by Wax in this draft, just like not many awesome picks.  A kicker in the 11th round might be too early, but will not hurt the team too much.

 

BeaudoinBrothers

The BeaudoinBrothers had a strong draft this year, but not nearly as good as their 2005 draft.  This year, the BeaudoinBrothers saw 2-3 players taken right in front of them.  For example, the BeaudoinBrothers were set to take Holt in the 2nd round, but OldNo7 took him one spot before the BBs.  That gave the BeaudoinBrothers a difficult dilemma.  They wanted A Gates but already had Shockey on their roster.  To maximize the team strength, the BBs had to take Gates and trade Shockey later in the draft.  The BBs did not find a taker for Shockey so it did not work out so well.  In the fourth round, the BBs wanted R Wayne, but the Decepticons took him two spots before.  The BBs settled on Hines Ward, which is quite a drop from R Wayne so the BBs were disappointed. 

The BB starting team will look a lot like the 2005 edition.  Not only Bulger, Hasselbeck, LT, K Jones, and M Peterson were saved from last year, but the first three picks in the draft were players that the BBs drafted last year: CJ, Gates, and C Chambers (who was later traded to Wax during the season).  The only problem is that the 2006 team does not have Holt and Tiki, which makes the 2006 edition of the BBs clearly not as good as the 2005 edition.

The BBs waited a long time to pick defensive players during the draft, but ended up with a pretty good defensive squad regardless.  Gibril Wilson in the 10th round was a bargain.  In the 11th round, the BBs took A Schobel who is not flashy like some other DLs, but he always ends up with good numbers regardless of who plays around him and regardless how good or bad the Bills team is.  At LB the BBs have historically picked guys who outplayed their draft status.  Tatupu, A Pierce, and K Morrison are all players who will back up M Peterson and they have a good chance to finish in the top 10.  Time will tell if the BeaudoinBrothers 2006 crop of LBs will be as successful as the 2005 group of LBs. 

The BBs were the last team to draft a rookie by waiting until the 15th round to pick one.   This is unlike the BBs' normal behavior of taking rookies early.  They selected Ernie Sims the rookie LB of the Lions.  Sims was taken 9th overall in the NFL draft.  But the BBs actually think they got their best rookie one round later: DeMeco Ryans was the BBs' 16th round pick.  Ryans is the starting MLB for the Texans and he's having a great preseason.  The BB GMs believe Ryans will outscore AJ Hawk who was taken much earlier by the Spitoons, and that Sims might also outscore Hawk.  This is a pretty bold statement and one has to wonder whether there is a rivalry developing between the Spitoons and the BBs because the Spitoons' pick of Hawk seemed to be targeted at the BBs since rookie Odell Thurman kicked the Spitoons' ass all of last year. 

Team Strength: Best group of starters in the league.  The BeaudoinBrothers' strength of starters is better than all other teams by a decent margin. 

Team Weakness: RB2.  After LT, the BeaudoinBrothers have a bunch of question marks with K Jones, D Foster, and R Droughns.  The BBs probably have the weakest 2nd starting RB in the league, maybe except OldNo7 (W Dunn / F Taylor).  The BBs need one of K Jones, Foster, and Droughns to step up like Tiki did last year. 

Best Pick: Michael Turner.  Because the BBs don't have a good RB2, an injury to LT would be devastating.  The BBs took Michael Turner because he could easily become the BBs' best RB if LT goes down.  Turner has shown before that he can be a great starter. 

Worst Pick: R Droughns.  The BBs waited too long before drafting a RB and are stuck with a RB on a bad team (Browns) who does not score TDs and must hope that he will perform like a starter. 

 

OldNo7

OldNo7's draft started with a bang in the first round with the selection of prized rookie Reggie Bush.  It was the first time since 2000 that a rookie was taken in the first round.  This pick is risky because we don't know how much Bush will be used in New Orleans since the Saints still have McAllister.  But this pick has A LOT of upside because OldNo7 currently does not have a strong franchise player and R Bush might become Old's franchise player for years and years to come if he is as good as advertised.  So in a way, this pick might end up being good for the future, but for 2006 only and until McAllister leaves the Saints, R Bush might slow down OldNo7 a little. 

In the second round, made a rock solid pick with Torry Holt.  This guy is always in the top 5.  You draft him and then you never worry about him all year.  Old was one of the teams who drafted defensive players the earliest.  Old took K Bulluck in the 3rd round and J Peppers in the 4th round.  Both players are stars at their own position and give OldNo7 a good base on defense.  At DB, Old waited much longer than at DL and LB but Charles Tillman was very good value as late as the 18th round .  Tillman was the best DB in the NFL last year after all.  Backup LBs for Old might be a little more of a question mark.  It is unclear if T Bruschi will be healthy this year.  Third LB L Briggs is ok but playing next to Urlacher limits his potential. 

Since OldNo7 drafted ROO, LB, and DL early, the team had to sacrifice somewhere.  They first took a RB in the 5th round with W Dunn and Dunn might be the weakest starting RB in the PQBFL.  However, this was a good pick for Old because at that spot, the team needed a reliable guy who will rake up the yards, they did not necessarily need a high-upside RB.  Dunn could have a nice season especially with the departure of TJ Duckett.  Saved RB F Taylor is a similar kind of guy.  He will be there to score some points when needed. 

OldNo7 did not have to draft a WR after Holt until very very late in the draft because they saved A Johnson, D Mason, and D Stallworth from last year.  One of them needs to stand up and produce at starter level.  A Johnson has talent but he continues to be affected by a horrible QB, Stallworth was traded to the Eagles which gives him a boost (McNabb is a better QB than Brees or A Brooks), and D Mason got reunited with McNair in Baltimore.  There is a reasonable chance that one or two of these WRs will perform well. 

Team Strength: Reggie Bush.  R Bush will start every week this year for OldNo7, he was the #1 rookie on all draft lists, and could pay dividends to OldNo7 for several years.  

Team Weakness: RB.  Franchise player S Jackson is already bothered by a heel injury and the Rams signed Stephen Davis.  Is this a sign that S Davis will get the goal line carries?  This is not good news for OldNo7.

Best Pick: W Dunn.   Stable RB who will do the job - perfect RB pick for a team who waited on the RB position in the draft. 

Worst Pick: Joe Addai.   Old spent a 6th round pick on a rookie despite having R Bush.  Old had other needs to fill.  And Addai looks horrible in preseason so far and will back up D Rhodes. 

 

Decepticons

The Decepticons are coming back in the PQBFL after a one year absence.  The last two years they played in the PQBFL, they ended up on top of the standings.  The Decepticons are the only team besides the BeaudoinBrothers to have won the league more than once.  Even though the Decepticons are not favorites to win this year, they will have to be watched because they have been able to surprise in the past.  Because the Decepticons are not a true expansion team, they were given favorable treatment in the draft for their return.  The Decepticons are trying to win right away rather than build for the future.  The selection of Tiki Barber as a franchise player is the best indication of that.  Tiki is getting old but he is still a top performer.  Getting Tiki as a franchise player benefits 2006, but not so much 2007 and later.  In the first round, the Decepticons went with the most logical choice: W McGahee.  He had a down year in 2005, but he is in great shape in camp and could return to his 2004 form.  McGahee also has potential for being a franchise player next year so that could be a bonus for the Decepticons. 

The next two picks by the Decepticons were more puzzling.  McNabb went in the 2nd round.  That seemed pretty high for a QB who does not run as much anymore, who is coming back from injury, and who lost T Owens.  But the Eagles acquired Stallworth after the PQBFL draft so it increased McNabb's value and  he may not be a bad pick after all.  But once Dec had a QB on the team, their 3rd round pick Brady seemed like a huge mistake.  Dec did not have a WR yet and they were already drafting their backup QB.  In an interesting turn of events, Dec traded Brady to FE later in the draft so Dec got some value out of Brady, rather than just having a great backup on the bench for about half of the year.  The only problem is that Dec could have asked for more in that trade.  Brady was a 3rd round pick and Dec got Chester Taylor in return, who was a 6th round pick.  The other part of the trade was a swap of 9th and 14th round picks.  Up three rounds (from 6th to 3rd) at the beginning of the draft is much more valuable than up 5 rounds (from 14th to 9th) in the middle part of the draft.  To Dec's defense however, Brady was a late 3rd round pick and C Taylor was an early 6th round pick, so the better comparison is more up 2.5 rounds early vs up 4.5 rounds later (late 9th round in return for early 14th round pick). 

With their 4th round pick, the Decepticons got great value with R Wayne who was the 10th WR taken in the draft at that point.  Wayne's chances of being a top 10 WR are very high due to the departure of E James from the Colts.  The other starting WR for Dec will be J Walker.  Unlike Tiki, this pick is somewhat geared for the future.  Walker may not be 100% this year because he's coming back from an ACL.  He should be back to his old self in 2007, but he might have a good 2006 nonetheless.

Between the 10th and 12 rounds, the Decepticons had 5 draft picks because of the compensatory picks for being an expansion team.  Dec used these five straight picks on a rookie buying spree.  LenDale White, Mario Williams, Santonio Holmes, Vince Young, and Jay Cutler all went to the Decepticons.  This was an interesting strategy, but one has to wonder if quantity equals quality in this case.  There is diversity in positions to spread the risk, but who will step up in this group?  L White is a big fat lazy ass.  Does he have a chance to beat C Brown and T Henry?  Very few big RBs are successful in the NFL.  J Bettis is the only one that comes to mind.  Mario Williams should give some points to Dec, but he certainly won't top the rookie rankings this year unless he beats the sack record.  S Holmes has brain problems.  He got arrested twice in the offseason and he did not return Roethlisberger's phone calls during the offseason.  Way to get on the same wave length as your QB.  V Young and J Cutler are backup QBs who might not see the field very much this year.  If they do, great, but we can't bank on it.

Team Strength: RB depth.  Jamal Lewis, Chester Taylor, and Tatum Bell all have some question marks but they also all have good upside and could surprise.  The Decepticons' 5th RB is better than some teams' RB3! 

Team Weakness: WR depth.  A Bryant is playing on the 49ers, E Moulds is now WR2 with a shitty QB and shitty team, and J Porter is in the doghouse because he and new coach Art Shell don't get along.  R Wayne and J Walker better stay healthy because the Decepticons' backup WRs are the weakest group in the PQBFL. 

Best Pick: Reggie Wayne.  Wayne was great value in the 4th round and filled Dec's greatest need at that point in the draft.  This could be the year that Wayne passes M Harrison. 

Worst Pick: C Cooley.  The Skins acquired TJ Duckett so that's not good news for the TD potential of Cooley.  The Decepticons spent their 5th round compensatory pick on Cooley instead of even trying to make an offer to the BeaudoinBrothers to acquire Shockey.  Cooley will not outscore Shockey this year. 

 

FlyingElvis

FlyingElvis was the laughing stock in 2005 and had one of the worst seasons ever.  The one good news about FE last year was the improvement towards the end of the year and the emergence of Larry Johnson.  LJ is a premier franchise player in 2006, and FE's strategy of picking him relatively early in the 2005 draft paid off.  LJ was probably the one player with the most expected increase in value between 2005 and 2006 so he was the ideal player to have for an expansion team.  FE is being rewarded this year. 

At the end of the first round, FE elected to go with C Portis.  This is somewhat of a risk because the extent of Portis' shoulder injury is not known.  In addition, will TJ Duckett be the goal-line RB in Washington?  It looks like it.  FlyingElvis' second pick also comes with some risk.  Steve Smith dominated the WR position last year, but he has not practiced in camp at all due to a hamstring injury. 

FE wanted Brady but he got drafted right in front of them by the Decepticons in the 3rd round.  FE was able to pull off a nice trade to grab him later in the draft.  This makes Trent Green somewhat of a waste on FE's team.  FE tried to trade T Green during the draft but was unable to do so. 

At TE, FE saved Ben Watson from last year.  Watson's stock has been soaring during the offseason especially due to the dispute between Deion Branch and the Patriots.  It is surprising that an expansion team that struggled in 2005 was able to save so many good players like LJ, B Watson, D Driver, and TJ Houshmandzadeh. 

On defense, FE built a great squad.  J Vilma is arguably the most productive LB in the NFL.  D Edwards is getting old but he is still performing at a high level.  Osi Umenyiora was the 2nd best DL last year and there is no reason to expect a dropoff this year.  At DB, FE saved Ed Reed who is overrated so that might be the only weakness on defense.  Reed was awful last year and it is wishful thinking to expect Reed to have as many turnovers as he did in 2003.

Overall, FE is by far the most improved team from last year.  One could say that it was easy to improve, but the Vegas linesmakers see FE leaping over Wax, Old, Dug, and UJ this year, so the extent of the improvement was unexpected. 

Team Strength: Depth on defense.  Nobody in the PQBFL has a backup DL as good as C Grant and a 3rd LB as good as W Witherspoon. 

Team Weakness: DB.  Ed Reed is overrated, Sammy Knight is getting old and is pushed by rookie Bernard Pollard, and Sean Taylor has never produced up to the hype he got coming into the league. 

Best Pick: Osi Umenyiora.  FE got Osi in the 10th round as the 5th DL taken?  Holy crap!  How could so many other teams pick a DL and leave Osi on the board?

Worst Pick: Trent Green.  FE panicked after Brady was taken in the 3rd round.  It was way too early to blow a pick on an aging QB like T Green.  Green finished 13th QB last year - not that good to start with.  And FE already has LJ so no need for another player from the Chiefs.   

 

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