Analysis of the 2005 PQBFL Draft

 

OldNo7

 

Overall it was a good draft for OldNo7.  This team has a very good chance of being the best ever in the history of the franchise.  The team’s RBs are very solid and the team has depth at the position.  Julius Jones was drafted #26 and could be a steal.  He looked great in the 2nd half of 2004 and could take over Portis as OldNo7’s starter for RB2.  Injuries at RB are a little concern with Priest, Portis, Ju Jones, S Jackson, and Fred Taylor all coming off a 2004 season affected by injuries to some extent.  OldNo7 also has depth at other positions, especially at QB because of OldNo7’s saved team.  T Green, J Plummer, and A Brooks were all saved from last year and the team could play the matchups all year long and exploit bad defenses.  At WR Darrell Jackson is underrated and was a good pick as the 12th WR taken in the draft.  The other starter is Andre Johnson who has a lot of potential but it remains to be seen if he can fulfill that potential.  As the 5th WR taken in the draft, he was somewhat a reach.  The WR depth is not nearly as good as RB depth.  Jimmy Smith is getting older, D Mason is old too plus he’s now with the Ravens, and Stallworth has not emerged as a quality WR yet.  Jason Witten was saved from last year at TE and he cements an overall very potent offense for OldNo7.  The team was very happy to see Mason cut instead of T Green or J Witten, then drafted Mason the 11th round, much later than where T Green or Witten would have been drafted. 

 

OldNo7 took the first rookie in the draft with Cadillac Williams with the 21st overall pick.  Cadillac is arguably the best rookie this year considering the combination of talent and opportunity for all rookies available. 

 

On defense, J Peppers is the star at DL.  He will be a world beater and is a threat to score at any time, which is very unusual for a DL.  He might even be used on offense for the Panthers this season, which would only add to his dominance at the DL position.  At LB there are more uncertainties.  T Spikes and J Farrior are both very good, but they rely on big plays to score so they tend to be inconsistent when they don’t make the big play.  At DB, OldNo7 drafted 2 CBs and one safety.  Dunta Robinson was drafted as the starter and he will need to keep up his high level of play to be a quality starter.  If opposing offenses avoid him on the field, he will only be a marginal player. 

 

Best move: getting Julius Peppers with the 40th overall pick.  Peppers could crush all other DLs in the league by a good margin. 

Worst move:  Drafting Andre Johnson with the 12th overall pick.  For the risk taker, Terrell Owens was still available, and for the risk-averse, Javon Walker was available. 

 

Team Strength: Depth and balance at RB and WR

Team Weakness: No premier player at LB and questionable depth

 

With a fairly balanced team and decent depth, OldNo7 is expected to finish in the top half of the standings for the first team in the history of the team. 

 

 

Spitoons

 

The Spitoons GM did a good job for a 2nd year in a row by having a solid draft.  Spitoons’ problems have historically been the coach, not the GM.  The Spitoons took some risks on offense but still end up with good balance.  Drafting Terrell Owens comes with risk, but Owens was the 7th WR taken in the draft so the price was not that high and it could pay big dividends for the Spitoons.  The 2nd WR position will be shared between a very solid core of saved players with Roy Williams, Steve Smith, and Larry Fitzgerald.  The situation is similar at RB.  There is no doubt Shaun Alexander will be a top RB.  The 2nd RB position will be shared by B Westbrook, L Jordan, and C Martin.  Few teams have as much depth and balance at these important positions as the Spitoons.  The team’s first pick was D Culpepper.  Similar to T Owens, but to a lower extent, Culpepper is a small risk because it is not clear how the loss of R Moss will affect Culpepper.  Ronnie Brown was drafted as the team’s first rookie.  Another small risk because of the return of Ricky Williams may cause a RB by committee situation, but few rookies have more potential than R Brown.  Troy Williamson also has a lot of potential in an explosive offense.

 

Defense does not look as good for the Spitoons.  Derrick Brooks and Zach Thomas are the starting LBs but they are getting up in age.  The new Dolphins defensive scheme might not be very well suited to Zach’s small frame.  At DB the Spitoons’ problems are more obvious.  Trufant, M Green, and R Griffith are probably the 3 most overrated DBs in the NFL this year and Spitoons took them all.  Trufant is switching to the other side of the field in 2005 to protect his injured shoulder and will face the weaker WR.  The Seahawks’ weaker CB (not Trufant) will face the opponent’s better WR.  Guess where other teams will throw to.  M Green is the Spitoons’ 2nd DB.  The problem with him is that M Brown returns from injury in 2005 which means Green will play a new position this year.  Robert Griffith is the Spitoons 3rd DB.  New team, new position, new defensive scheme, and now playing with Adrian Wilson in the secondary.  Griffith’s finished 2nd of all DBs in tackles last year – his chances of repeating are slim to none.

 

 

Best move:  When is the last time you could draft the NFL rushing champion with the 58th overall pick?  C Martin is getting old, but this is tremendous value. 

Worst move:  Drafting 3 DBs affected by major changes in their situation. 

 

Team Strength: Depth and balance at RB and WR

Team Weakness: No premier player on defense and questionable depth

 

In summary, the Spitoons have a chance to be competitive but they need someone to step up on defense to make it to the top. 

 

 

FlyingElvis

 

Expansion teams have historically not been successful in the PQBFL even back in the years where there were no saved players.  There is no reason to expect FlyingElvis to break the trend.  The team has some good players, but the roster is filled with question marks and lack of depth, especially on defense.  For example, Jamie Sharper is now with the Seahawks and playing a new position.  Relying on him as the team’s starting LB is shaky.  Ed Reed is a top DB but the Ravens are playing a new defensive scheme in 2005 so he comes with more uncertainty than other top players.  At DL Terrell Suggs could be a steal, because he may play a significant number of downs as a LB and he could challenge for NFL sack leader. 

 

FlyingElvis must be very happy with Willis McGahee at 4th overall.  McGahee is arguably one of the top long-term RB in the NFL and he could be the team’s franchise player for years.  The team’s top WRs are M Harrison and R Wayne.  They are good, but will the team start them both?  Two WRs on the same team is not a great situation to be in.  Fortunately, the team has more depth at WR than at any other position.  Nate Burleson could become a starter for FE as he replaces R Moss with the Vikings.  Reggie Williams was a major reach at 73rd overall, but Don Driver was very solid value at 77th overall. 

 

At RB, FlyingElvis has an interesting situation.  A Green is the 2nd starter behind McGahee.  After A Green, Larry Johnson is the most enigmatic player.  He is worth gold if Priest gets injured.  Even if Priest stays healthy, LJ could improve FE’s saved team in 2006 if Priest decides to retire at the end of 2005.  Staley and M Bennett are the other backups.  Injury issues or job security (for M Bennett especially) are major problems. 

 

FlyingElvis needs Matt Jones to have a great rookie season.  FE is the only team that drafted only 2 rookies.  They waited until the last round to draft a backup: Ellis Hobbs, DB for the Patriots.  Hobbs is not even a starter for the Pats.  FE has no depth at all at the rookie position. 

 

FlyingElvis must like the Jaguars’ outlook for 2005.  In another major reach, Byron Leftwich was taken 27th overall.  Fortunately, the team recovered by drafting safe values in Favre and Brady. 

 

Best move: Drafting McGahee in the first round to potentially be the team’s franchise player in 2006 and beyond.  This was very important move as an expansion team.

Worst move: Too much stock in the Jaguars (Leftwich, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones) and the Colts WRs (Harrison, R Wayne). 

 

Team Strength: Several quality WRs

Team Weakness: No depth at RB.  M Bennett may not keep his job, Larry Johnson has immediate value only if Priest goes down, and Staley is already injured. 

 

In summary, this could be a long season for FlyingElvis.  However, the team drafted some players to build on in 2006, like McGahee, N Burleson, Larry Johnson, etc. 

 

BeaudoinBrothers

 

The BeaudoinBrothers drafted in 2004 with the goal of establishing a very strong saved team and be the 2005 league favorites.  This was done by doing two things:

  1. Drafting several boom/bust players in 2004
  2. Trading high draft picks in return for draft picks in the medium rounds, to further boost the team’s expected saved team in 2005.  This meant several medium-quality players at the expense of having fewer stars in 2004. 

 

As expected, the BeaudoinBrothers did not win in 2004, but they are now in a good position in 2005.  Their 2005 saved team was arguably the best in the league, led by A Gates, R Harrison, A Boldin, and M Vick. 

 

In addition, the BeaudoinBrothers had a much better draft this year than last year.  Last year the BeaudoinBrothers made strange moves like drafting 2 QBs before they even took their first WR.  This year, things fell into place for the Bros.  The WR position should not be a weakness in 2005.  The BBs spent their first 2 picks on Chad Johnson and Torry Holt.  This should be the best WR duo in the league.  The team also got a nice mix of youth and experience at RB with Kevin Jones and Tiki Barber as the 2nd and 3rd RBs behind franchise player L Tomlinson.  However, talent quickly drops off at RB with D Foster and TJ Duckett being RB4 and RB5.  The BeaudoinBrothers cannot afford injuries at RB. 

 

The BeaudoinBrothers drafted JJ Arrington as their starting rookie.  Arrington was the 4th RB taken in the NFL draft, but the 2nd rookie taken in the PQBFL draft.  JJ is not the most talented rookie RB this year, but he is the least likely to be involved in a RB by committee situation, except maybe for Cadillac Williams.  On defense the BeaudoinBrothers have solid starters with Charles Grant, Donnie Edwards, Jonathan Vilma, and Rodney Harrison. 

 

Best move: Grabbing two of the top WRs in the league and still being able to get Kevin Jones and Tiki Barber to play with LT at RB.  The team is reaping the benefits from the 2004 draft that allowed them to make offseason trades to move up in the 2005 draft.

Worst move: Drafting the combo M Bulger / Torry Holt as starters is an extra risk the team does not need. 

 

Team Strength: Very strong all-around lineup on paper with no obvious weakness for starters except for the kicker. 

Team Weakness: The team’s depth at RB is questionable.  After Tiki Barber at RB3, D Foster is an injury waiting to happen, and TJ Duckett is only a backup in Atlanta. 

 

In summary the BeaudoinBrothers are one of the league favorites for 2005.  This is the result of the 2004 draft, a strong saved team, offseason trades, and a 2005 draft where the first few rounds were going the BBs’ way. 

 

WaxOnWaxOff

 

WaxOnWaxOff opened up the draft by selecting Rudi Johnson and Domanick Davis.  With franchise player D McAllister, Wax has one of the best trio of RBs in the league.  This comes with a cost however.  Wax has the weakest WR1 in the league with H Ward.  Depth at WR is not really there either.  D Branch is promising but often injured.  Jerry Porter is an underachiever but could improve with the addition of R Moss.  L Coles could have a good season by being reunited with C Pennington, but his toe injury is still there.  Wax needs one of these WRs to develop into a top 15 WR.  It could happen, but other teams have fewer question marks with their top WRs.  At QB, Wax saved Delhomme and C Palmer.  It was surprising to see Wax not drafting a QB until Carr in the 11th round.  The team must really have confidence that Delhomme or Palmer can be a top QB. 

 

On defense Wax goes from one of the worst in 2004 to the best in 2005.  Keith Bulluck, Ray Lewis, Troy Polamalu, Roy Williams, and Aaron Schobel will dominate the PQBFL.  Wax has the top 2 LBs in the league and will outscore opponents week in week out.  Add to that the Steelers team defense and Wax has no flaw on defense. 

 

With the rookie position, Wax went the safe route.  Kicker Nugent and TE Heath Miller will not lead the league at the rookie position, but they will do the job.  Ryan Moats adds a little of upside as he could start in Philly if B Westbrook goes down to injury.

 

Best move: Taking the best 2 LBs in the league.  Other teams focused on offense and Wax grabbed two high scorers in the 4th and 5th rounds.  It’s worth it.  K Bulluck and Ray Lewis will not be flops. 

Worst move: Not drafting a QB earlier than 11th round given that the team’s saved QBs are not top notch. 

 

Team Strength: Wax’s defense is top in 2005. 

Team Weakness: The starter at QB and the 2nd WR are weaker than other teams. 

 

Wax should again have a solid team this year.  However there are more question marks than in the past. 

 

 

 

Dugongs

 

The Dugongs are an expansion team but have the advantage of having been in the PQBFL a few years ago and have more experience at drafting defensive players due to their long-time participation in the WCFFL.  The Dugongs have a good chance of being competitive this year.  E James was the team’s first pick.  He was the safest player to take after the franchise players.  The team stocked on 2nd and 3rd tier RBs to backup Jamal Lewis: Tatum Bell, C Brown, Barlow, Faulk, Blaylock.  The Dugongs are hoping for Tatum Bell to become the starter in Denver and potentially become a top 5 RB.  This would be huge for the Dugongs.  At WR the team has a strong starting duo in J Walker and J Horn.  Expansion teams often have depth problems, and we find it at WR.  Plaxico plays with a young QB, I Bruce is getting old, and Charles Rogers has not stayed healthy so far. 

 

Tony Gonzalez is the best or second best TE in the league every year.  Dugongs grabbed him with the 1st pick of the 3rd round.  Very few players are as solid outside the first 2 rounds.  The Ravens D should be #1 again and combined with T Gonzalez, this will give a “quiet edge” to the Dugongs as TEs and team defenses are often overlooked. 

 

On defense, the Dugongs waited a long time to draft their first player, but they got a bargain with B Urlacher with the 87th overall pick.  Adrian Wilson is a solid pick to start at DB.  Kevin Williams will start at DL – another strong but not flashy pick. 

 

Best move:  Getting Tony Gonzalez in the 3rd round.  No team has ever regretted drafting this guy early in the last 6 years. 

Worst move:  Not getting more depth behind K Collins at QB.  Warner is an injury risk and J Harrington may not keep his job.  Both have a lot of upside but are not safe.  The Dugongs should have drafted a 4th QB instead of a 7th RB or a 7th WR. 

 

Team Strength:  No position is a big strength but several positions have a good quality starter – team defense, TE, DL, LB, DB.  Very balanced team. 

Team Weakness:  The flip side of having no clear strength is having no clear weakness.  This is unusual for an expansion team. 

 

The Dugongs could have one of the best expansion teams in the history of the league – similar to what they did in 2000. 

 

 

UncleJack

 

After winning the league in 2002, UncleJack fell hard in 2003 by finishing next-to-last and then last in 2004.  Year 2005 brings more question marks. 

 

The most obvious problem for UJ is the RBs.  Dillon is a safe pick in the 2nd round.  But after him it falls to W Dunn who is the worst RB2 in the PQBFL.  The backups are Bettis and Droughns.  They are both involved in a RB by committee.  UJ is by far the weakest team at RB. 

 

On the other hand, UJ is outrageously stacked at QB.  P Manning is the clear #1 at the position, and UJ spent an early 3rd round pick on D McNabb.  Why?  McNabb was probably the best talent available at that point, but he may be useless and sit on UJ’s bench for more than 10 weeks.  The BeaudoinBrothers made a similar move in 2004 by drafting M Vick and D McNabb early, which turned out ok since McNabb had a great year and Vick a disappointing year.  But it’s hard to imagine Manning or McNabb having an off year in 2005.  Both will dominate and one must stay on the bench.

 

At WR UJ will be strong with R Moss, M Clayton, and D Bennett.  Veterans Moulds and Rod Smith solidify this unit which should be very strong. 

 

On defense UJ is probably average.  N Barnett is a nice LB1.  P Kerney is a top 5 DL, and so is R Barber at DB.  However, after that the backups are decent but nothing special. 

 

UncleJack’s rookie is Cedric Benson.  It is imperative for Benson to sign and report to the Bears, otherwise this would be an expensive 6th round pick.  UJ has drafted good rookie WRs before, and Mark Clayton may emerge like the other M Clayton (Tampa Bay) did for UJ last year. 

 

Best move: Drafting the combination of Benson (RB) Clayton (WR) and A Rolle (DB) provides upside if Benson signs, safety of getting a floor production from the rookie with a starting DB, and the x-factor with another Clayton on the team.

Worst move: UJ should have drafted a RB instead of McNabb in the 3rd round since P Manning is the franchise player.  

 

Team Strength: QB – UJ will get the highest QB bench score ever

Team Weakness:  RB RB RB RB RB RB… RB

 

Can a team win without RBs?  UncleJack has to show it.  It did not work in 2004 for them.  Second chance this year!

 

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