Week #16

The GloriousBastards became the first team all year to win on consecutive weeks and kept a glimmer of hope to win the PQBFL title next week.  In order to do so, they will have to win for a third straight week, the Bros must finish last, and Dec should finish no higher than 5th place.  This is quite a tall order but similar to 2019 GB simply got hot a bit late.  Last year GB won four straight times in weeks 13-16 and then 3rd place in the final week to finish only one rank-point behind first place and this year once again they might fall short.  Perhaps second place is more realistic but GB also needs to worry about beating Wax which is only one rank-point behind.  This week, Bas was about to officially be eliminated from contention until MNF when Diggs exploded for three TDs and Bas beat Wax for the win thanks to Diggs’ 35.25 pts who will most likely finish WR3 in the PQBFL thanks to this effort.  Brady did even better than Diggs on Saturday with 36.5 pts of his own and if he had not been benched at halftime because the game was out of hand he would have kept going as illustrated by Gabbert’s two TDs in the second half when Brady was watching from the sidelines.  Rookie Herbert was a bit less impressive than usual with 14.25 pts but at least he led the Chargers to victory which is something he has not done much this season.  Bas also got some help from defense with three guys scoring double digits: 18 pts from R Smith and 10 pts each for the Saints duo C Jordan and D Davis.

WaxOnWaxOff started the week on fire with an unprecedented 6 rushing TDs from Kamara for 47.25 pts and it looked like Wax would cruise to an easy win on Sunday.  Defense was also above average with 14 pts from Cunningham and 13 pts from TJ Watt although in that same game the Steelers D only scored 5.5 pts which was below their projection.  K Neal also picked off Mahomes to join Cunningham and Watt with a double-digit score.  The problem for Wax however was that besides Kamara, almost everybody on offense scored below projections.  For example C Ridley had a good game with 5-130 but he did not score a TD and the huge shootout between the Falcons and Chiefs did not materialize so Ridley’s 11 pts left to be desired especially considering that Ju Jones was out to injury and that Ridley’s season average is over 14 pts per game.  DJ Moore also caught 5 balls but his yardage was insignificant at 37 yds and similarly he did not score.  One of the biggest disappointments was L Bell who only scored 3.25 pts against the Falcons with CEH out to injury, heck Bell was even outrushed by backup Darrel Williams 10 carries to 7 carries, and his yards per carry were inferior too 4.3 for Bell and 4.6 for Williams.  Williams also caught more passes and receiving yards than Bell so if Bell cannot be the main RB when CEH is out, then he is a lost cause. 

The Admirals finished in 3rd place to recover from their 2-week red stretch in weeks 14-15 and beat OldNo7 by 4 spots to jump from 2 rank-points behind Old to 2 rank-points ahead of Old with one week to go to decide who will finish 5th and 6th in the final standings.  Adm could still theoretically finish 3rd or 4th but because both Bas and Wax beat Adm this week then it looks unlikely at this stage.  This week Adm was able to distance Beaud and FE on SNF thanks to 3 TDs from D Adams and a total of 33 pts.  A Jones added 9 pts of his own in that game but the blemish for Adm is that AJ Dillon (Old) was quite impressive so it is starting to smell like the end of Jones’ reign as the top RB in Green Bay is not that far distant in the future.  D Watson scored above projections with 28.75 pts in an easy matchup against the Bengals but the Texans did not win the game – Watson’s lost fumble on a sack in the last 2 minutes was particularly costly.  At RB, D Harris and P Lindsay were out to injury and Ingram was a healthy scratch so Adm had nobody to start except C Hyde and unlike last week he did not do much with his only 2 carries and finished the game with 2 pts.  The WR duo Jefferson-Thielen was involved in a high scoring affair in New Orleans but could only score 1 of the Vikings 5 TDs between them because the Vikes scored twice on the ground and TE Irv Smith (FE) stole two TDs from the WRs.  The Admirals were also stuck with the Vikings defense in that game and allowing 52 pts and 583 total yards could hardly be worse but intercepting Brees twice is what limited the damage to -2 pts. 

After not finishing higher than 5th in each of the first 12 weeks of the season, FE finished in 4th place for the third time in the last 4 weeks with 136.5 pts this week.  FE would have finished a season-high 3rd place if they had started Cousins as intended but the coach was asleep at the wheel and Bridgewater only scored 7 pts compared to 23.5 pts for Cousins.  Both RBs M Sanders and Ekeler scored double digits which is not something that FE could dream of at that position after Barkley and subsequently Ekeler went down to injury, so it’s a big change from a few weeks ago.  Also suddenly FE has three rookies clicking on all cylinders, not only Hurts is now starting and scored 15 pts but FE also had two even better rookies on the bench with 17.75 pts from T Higgins and 17 pts from J Taylor.  Those two guys will definitely have value in 2021 and provide something to look forward to for a FE squad which did not enjoy the most fun year in 2020.  The big difference maker this week however was not the starting rookie but rather the starting WRs.  M Evans scored 33 pts against the Vikings and surprisingly the coach started Gallup for the first time and he rewarded the coach with 2 TDs and 24 pts.  Defense was less impressive for FE notably the Pats getting destroyed at home by the Bills and finished with -3 pts and Tremaine Edmunds being limited to 5 pts in that game since the Bills defense was hardly ever on the field. 

The BeaudoinBrothers stumbled to 5th place but achieved their most important objective: beat the Decepticons.  The Bros extended their lead in first place to 4 rank points and with the benefit of the tie-breaker all the Bros need to do in week 17 is to avoid losing by 5 ranks against Dec and the Bros will be champions.  Coincidentally this is the exact opposite situation as last year when the Bros were down by 5 to the ‘Cons after week 16 but shocked them by beating Dec by 7 ranks in the final week to steal the crown.  This week the key for Beaud turned out to be the coaching decision between starting Fournette or David Johnson, after long hesitation the coach gave the nod to David Johnson who scored 2 TDs and almost 140 yards from scrimmage against the Bengals for 21.5 pts while Fournette had an ok game including a TD but if he had started, his 10.5 pts would not have been enough and Beaud would have lost not only to Dec, but also against Old as well so they would only lead by 1 in the standinds instead of 4, a huge 3 rank-point swing from one coaching call alone.  Who would have known that after riding the pine pretty much all year, former franchise player D Johnson would be the one coming through in the clutch.  Other than Johnson there were lots of bad games especially on offense for Beaud, for example K Murray no TD and one INT, Aiyuk only one reception before hurting his ankle, D Henry and AJ Brown scoring only 14 pts combined when their projection was over 30, and A Cooper not scoring a TD while teammates Lamb and Gallup had 2 each.  The only offensive player who did well besides Johnson was Kelce with 16.75 pts but of course his TD was cancelled by Dec’s own TD via Mahomes.  Defense is where the Bros had the edge over the usually strong ‘Cons: the Bros scored 50 pts compared to 38 for Dec which is not bad but it was the difference since the Bros beat Dec by only 6 points this week.  The Ravens dominated the Giants and scored 9.5 pts to take back the PQBFL’s top spot at the position tied with the Steelers (Wax).  DL Garrett had a sack this week for his first double digit score since coming back from covid and his first 10+ point game since week 7, and LB D White also had another sack for 16 pts to consolidate his lead as the league’s best LB.

The Decepticons had lots of easy matchups but could not deliver with the team’s lowest score since week 11 with 125.5 pts.  The Cons will look for perfect revenge for the events of 2019 week 17 by beating Beaud by 5 spots although with Mahomes possibly on bye in week 17 that might not be an easy thing to do.  The other issue is whether Tua Tago will even start for the Dolphins, and if he does, how long will he stay on the field?  It is utterly clear that Fitzpatrick is the better QB at this point of the season and Fitz salvaged the Dolphins’ season with late heroics.  Fitz scored 14 pts and had 182 passing yards in only 10 minutes while Tago was ineffective with 9.75 pts and only 94 passing yards in the first 50 minutes of that game.  If the Dolphins were not in the playoff race, then no problem about testing their rookie but if the team fails to make the playoffs Tago and the coach will be the reason.  Mahomes scored 21 pts against the Falcons but it was not pretty and he almost lost the game due to a dropped INT by the Falcons defender in the end zone late in the game.  Chubb scored a short TD but otherwise he was disturbingly bad against the Jets defense.  TE Hooper at least benefited from all Browns’ WRs being out to covid but we could have expected more than 10.5 pts against those Jets; Hooper did not do all that much considering he was targeted 15 times by Mayfield.  The week had started well with C Godwin on Saturday who scored 14 pts until he was shut out in the second half when the Bucs lifted their foot off the gas pedal.  Kicker Koo has been the PQBFL’s best kicker this season but week 16 was not a highlight with only 0.5 pt including a missed FG late in the game which could have sent the game into overtime and possibly more points for Koo and/or Mahomes to beat the Bros. 

OldNo7 finished a hair behind Dec which was a critical rank-point lost in the race against Adm.  Old will have to beat Adm by 2 rank-points and also beat Adm by a total of at least 10.5 total pts to earn the tie-breaker if Old wants to finish 5th.  On MNF the injury to Poyer killed Old’s chances to beat Dec and perhaps even Beaud as well, while the Bills defense scored 11 pts with a solid effort but they did not create a single turnover which ended up costing Old.  In that game J White also could not get the job done because Newton was horrible by completing only 5 passes despite playing from behind all game long.  A Rodgers was the team leader with 28 pts which has been a standard occurrence this year and LB Schobert was the other player to top 20 pts thanks to a sack, a forced fumble, and an INT - not bad for a LB.  With a decent week 17, Schobert will possibly finish LB2 in the PQBFL in front of Roquan Smith (Bas) and most importantly he has not missed a single game to injury.  Old also received a good contribution this week from WR A Robinson in a rare start due to K Allen’s injury; Robinson scored slightly above his season average of 13.0 with 15 pts this week.  A Robinson will have a chance in week 17 to finish in the top 10 WRs in the PQBFL yet he has been on the bench for most of the season because Ty Hill and K Allen have not been benchable.  Robinson’s good game was cancelled by the former kicker of his team Robbie Gould who missed 2 FGs and an extra point to finish at -3.5 pts in the 49ers’ win in Arizona.

Josh Allen scored the vast majority of ProjMJ’s points once again and this time it was enough to get Prof out of last place.  Prof has finished last in exactly half of the 16 weeks so week 17 will determine if Prof will be last more or less than 50% of weeks.  Allen demolished the Pats on the road with 37.25 pts and ignoring Prescott he’s the league’s third best QB not far behind Mahomes and Rodgers so he looks like franchise player material for any PQBFL team, let alone ProfMJ.  The rest of Prof’s starters were dreadful, perhaps C Kupp not too bad with 11.25 pts and KJ Wright with 10 pts, both beating their projection slightly, however everybody else was into the single digits, Drake scored a short TD but only gained 50 yards from scrimmage, M Davis was even worse with only 28 yards rushing, WR C Davis scored a goose egg and rookie Mims did the same despite the Jets winning.  Kicker Crosby did not attempt a single FG because the Packers could move the ball at will and he missed one of his attempted extra-points for a total of only 1 point.  Defense was marginally better than offense with the Cowboys scoring 6.5 pts which is high by their standards and DB Tracy Walker scoring 9 pts compared to the previous 6 weeks combined where he only scored 13 pts for an average of barely 2 pts per game which can hardly be worse.  Walker ranks DB24 in the PQBFL which is next to last if we ignore the DBs not starting for their NFL team or injured. 

The Ballers finished last for only the second time of the season in a meaningless week for them except for injury points where they lost ground to ProfMJ 190 to 154 so cumulatively they trail by 85 which means they will most likely have the second pick overall in 2021 while Prof will speak first.  Gronk played first on Saturday and he did well with 18.75 pts with a very efficient game by maximizing his scoring on only two catches, both being for TDs.  However it went downhill from there for the Ballers with 16.5 pts from Tannehill and 12 pts from D Cook which is not awful but still short of projections by a non-negligible amount.  WR Hopkins was a bigger underperformer with 9.25 pts and his team might have dropped their chance to make the playoffs with their dud effort against the 49ers.  S Watkins was in the headlines of his game for the wrong reasons, he only caught two short passes but the big play was his attempted pass which ended up in an INT to cause him to finish in negative territory this week.  Defense was subpar as well with nobody reaching double digits, DL C Jones almost did with 9.5 pts but C Campbell (1 pt), Wagner (6 pts), and Ju Simmons (4 pts) were all well below their season average.





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